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USD/JPY Weekly Forecast Dec. 19-23, 2011, Fundamental Analysis

By:
FX Empire Editorial Board
Updated: Mar 5, 2019, 13:24 UTC

but it still trading in the same range, as the dollar and the yen advanced against other major currencies with the high levels of risk aversion that

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast Dec. 19-23, 2011, Fundamental Analysis

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast Dec. 19-23, 2011, Fundamental Analysis
USD/JPY Weekly Forecast Dec. 19-23, 2011, Fundamental Analysis
but it still trading in the same range, as the dollar and the yen advanced against other major currencies with the high levels of risk aversion that dominated the financial market.

On the other hand, the pair is expected to trade in the same range during the upcoming week until the BOJ interest rate decision, where the central bank is expected to keep the rate steady.

The BOJ’s statement will be closely monitored, where any intervention from the BOJ or the Ministry of finance is a key factor for the yen to move.

The BOJ intervention is still an option, since the yen remains strong on haven demand and the previous interventions till now did not weaken the yen enough.

The U.S. economy will release the GDP numbers for the third quarter, where it’s expected unrevised at 2.0%, but any change on the GDP reading will be faced by a violence move from the greenback.

The greenback just like the yen is finding strong demand, where investors increased their appetite for the lower-yielding currency such as the dollar, sending the federal currency to its highest level in eleven month against the euro.

The next move for the USD/JPY pair will depend on the market sentiment, where the BOJ’s decision and the U.S. GDP numbers will contribute in defining the current sentiment.

Major highlights for this week that will affect the USD/JPY pair’s trading:

Monday December 19:

Both economies are not due to release any major fundamentals leaving the focus on the market sentiment.

Tuesday December 20:

On Tuesday at 04:30 GMT, the Japanese economy will issue the All Industry Activity Index for October where it’s expected at 1.1% compare to the previous drop of 0.9%.

At 05:00 GMT, the Japanese Leading Index for October will be released, where the prior reading was 91.5, while the Coincident Index for October had a previous reading of 90.3.

The U.S. economy will release the Housing Starts for November at 13:30 GMT, where it’s expected to show a rise of 0.3% to 630 thousand compare to the prior drop of 0.3%.

As for the U.S. Building Permits it’s expected to drop 1.4% to 635 thousand from 653 thousand.

Wednesday December 21:

On Wednesday at 23:50 GMT (Tuesday), Japan will issue Merchandise Trade Balance Total for November, where it’s expected to show a deficit of 442.4 billion yen widening from the deficit of 273.8 billion.

The Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance had a prior reading of –457.9 billion yen, and expected to narrow to -292.8 billion.

At 04:00 GMT, the Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision regarding where the central bank is expected to keep the interest rate steady at 0.10%.

The U.S. economy will release the Existing Home Sales for November at 15:00 GMT and it’s expected to advance 2.4% to 5.09 million from 4.97 million.

Thursday December 22:

The U.S. economy will release the final GDP reading for the third quarter at 13:30 GMT, the annualized Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter is expected to remain unrevised at 2.0%.

The Personal Consumption for the third quarter is also expected steady at 2.3% as well as the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure to hold at 2.0%.

The U.S. economy will also issue its weekly initial claims, where the number of people filing for first-time claims for the state unemployment insurance dropped to 366 thousand last week.

At 14:55 GMT, the United States will issue the University of Michigan Confidence for December, where the previous reading was 67.7 and it’s expected to rise to 68.2.

The U.S. leading index for November will be released at 15:00 GMT and expected to slow to 0.3% from 0.9%.

Friday December 23:

On Friday at 13:30 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the Durable Goods Orders for November with a previous reading of –0.7% and it’s expected to come at 2.1%.

The Personal Income for November is expected to slow to 0.3% from 0.4%, while the Personal Spending is expected to come at 0.4% from the previous 0.1%.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditure for November is expected in line with the previous rise of 0.1% on the month and 1.7% on the year.

At 15:00 GMT, the U.S. economy will issue the New Home Sales for November, where it’s expected to rise 1.8% to 313 thousand from 307 thousand.

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