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USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY ended the week at 84.26 while its trading range for the week remained between the opening at 84.16 and the

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

In this article:

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast
USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY ended the week at 84.26 while its trading range for the week remained between the opening at 84.16 and the high of the week of 84.62 which was also an annual high for the pair. This week the currency remained weak with markets dealing with last Sundays election results giving Shinzo Abe and the Liberal Democratic Party a landslide victory without two thirds of the lower house. Abe did not waste time waiting to officially be appointed Prime Minister before he went after the Bank of Japan to push his economic platform.

The Bank of Japan added 10trillion yen to its current asset purchase program as markets had expected.

The Liberal Democratic Party, set to form a new government, decided Thursday to put together a pump-priming package by Jan. 11 to keep the lethargic economy afloat, party lawmakers said Thursday. “We’ll work out the budget by giving up yearend and New Year’s holidays,” LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Akira Amari told reporters after a meeting of party executives where the decision was made.

While the meeting fell short of specifying the size of the supplementary budget for fiscal 2012, which ends next March, he said, “It will be sufficient enough to pull Japan out of deflation.”

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Dec 21, 2012

84.26

84.43

84.44

83.86

-0.21%

Dec 20, 2012

84.43

84.24

84.45

83.86

0.23%

Dec 19, 2012

84.24

84.36

84.62

83.95

-0.15%

Dec 18, 2012

84.36

83.92

84.36

83.82

0.53%

Dec 17, 2012

83.92

84.16

84.16

83.61

-0.28%

I would like to take this time to express my best wishes to all of my readers during this holiday season and extend the best hopes for profitable trading in 2013.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 17-21 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 17

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-8.1

-1.0

-5.2

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

1.3B

25.0B

3.2B

Dec. 18

13:30

USD

Current Account 

-107.5B

-103.4B

-118.1B

 

21:45

NZD

Current Account 

-4.42B

-4.40B

-1.80B

 

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance 

-0.87T

-0.81T

-0.62T

Dec. 19

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.899M

0.875M

0.868M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.861M

0.873M

0.888M

 

21:45

NZD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

0.4%

0.3%

Dec. 20

04:00

JPY

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

0.10%

0.10%

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

361K

357K

344K

 

13:30

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

3.1%

2.8%

2.7%

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3225K

3199K

3213K

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

5.04M

4.87M

4.76M

 

15:00

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

8.1

-3.0

-10.7

Dec. 21

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

1.6%

-0.2%

1.9%

 

13:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.7%

0.2%

1.1%

 

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.4%

0.3%

-0.1%

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

72.9

74.7

74.5

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 94.99 on May 05, 2010

Average: 82.77 over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Dec. 27

23:30

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.5% 

-0.5% 

 

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5% 

1.6% 

 

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY) 

1.1% 

-1.2% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

Dec 26 01:30 Japan 

Dec 27 10:10 Italy  

Dec 28 10:10 Italy  

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