Introduction: In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant,
Introduction: In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant, the far easier and smarter trade was to look for technical opportunities to go with the fundamental theme and trade with the market trend rather than to trying to fade it.
Against the Japanese yen, whose central bank held rates steady at zero, the dollar appreciated 19% from its lowest to highest levels. USD/JPY was in a very strong uptrend throughout the year, but even so, there were plenty of retraces along the way. These pullbacks were perfect opportunities for traders to combine technicals with fundamentals to enter the trade at an opportune moment.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/JPY closed the week at 82.47 a bit weaker than its opening on Monday at 82.56 but within a tight range. Political uncertainty, lackluster eco data and changing monetary policy are all weakening the JPY. As electioneering reaches a peak, contender, Shinto Abe, the most likely winner, and next Prime Minister of Japan, continues to push his platform of additional monetary easing, more control over the Bank of Japan, higher inflation targets and direct linked monetary policy. Abe would force the Bank of Japan to adopt a 3% inflation target and increase easing until that target is met. Markets are scared of this sort of policy and the loss of independence for the central bank.
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
Nov 30, 2012 |
82.47 |
82.14 |
82.75 |
82.05 |
0.40% |
Nov 29, 2012 |
82.15 |
82.16 |
82.22 |
81.92 |
-0.01% |
Nov 28, 2012 |
82.16 |
82.09 |
82.21 |
81.69 |
0.08% |
Nov 27, 2012 |
82.09 |
81.88 |
82.31 |
81.88 |
0.26% |
Nov 26, 2012 |
81.88 |
82.56 |
82.62 |
81.86 |
-0.83% |
On Friday, the BoJ announced additional easing, to help the faltering economy. This past week, Japan released their monthly data dump with fairly negative results, the only bright spot was an increase in industrial production.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of November 26 – 30 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Nov. 26 |
NZD |
Trade Balance |
-718M |
-536M |
-775M |
Nov. 27 |
NZD |
Inflation Expectations (QoQ) |
2.3% |
2.3% |
|
|
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
1.5% |
-0.5% |
1.7% |
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
0.0% |
-0.6% |
9.2% |
|
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
73.7 |
73.0 |
73.1 |
Nov. 28 |
AUD |
Construction Work Done (QoQ) |
1.7% |
2.7% |
0.9% |
|
USD |
New Home Sales |
368K |
390K |
369K |
|
JPY |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
-1.2% |
-0.7% |
0.4% |
Nov. 29 |
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) |
3.4% |
-3.7% |
|
|
AUD |
Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) |
2.8% |
2.0% |
3.4% |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
393K |
390K |
416K |
|
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
2.7% |
2.8% |
2.0% |
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3287K |
3323K |
3357K |
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
5.2% |
0.8% |
0.4% |
|
NZD |
Building Consents (MoM) |
-1.5% |
7.6% |
|
|
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) |
-0.5% |
-0.4% |
-0.4% |
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.8% |
-2.2% |
-4.1% |
Nov. 30 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
50.4 |
50.5 |
49.9 |
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest: 94.99 on May 05, 2010
Average: 82.77 over this period
Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 03 |
00:30 |
AUD |
-2.5% |
-0.7% |
|
|
00:30 |
AUD |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
51.3 |
51.7 |
|
Dec. 04 |
00:30 |
AUD |
-2.0% |
7.8% |
|
|
00:30 |
AUD |
-14.8B |
-11.8B |
|
|
03:30 |
AUD |
3.00% |
3.25% |
|
Dec. 05 |
00:30 |
AUD |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
125K |
158K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
2.7% |
1.9% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-0.9% |
-0.1% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
53.5 |
54.2 |
|
|
20:00 |
NZD |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
Dec. 07 |
00:30 |
AUD |
-2.05B |
-1.46B |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 03 10:30 Germany
Dec 04 01:30 Japan
Dec 04 10:30 Belgium
Dec 04 15:30 UK
Dec 05 09:30 Spain
Dec 05 10:30 Germany
Dec 05 11:00 Norway
Dec 05 15:30 Sweden
Dec 06 01:30 Japan
Dec 06 09:50 France
Dec 06 16:00 US
Dec 07 16:30 Italy