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USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 27-31, 2014, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 03:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY ended the week back over the 108 level trading as high as 108.3 as the US dollar reasserted its dominance.

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 27-31, 2014, Forecast

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USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 27-31, 2014, Forecast
USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 27-31, 2014, Forecast
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY ended the week back over the 108 level trading as high as 108.3 as the US dollar reasserted its dominance. The Federal Reserve may provide some clarity next Wednesday with the release of their latest monetary policy statement. Markets expect the Fed to fully wind down their once-massive quantitative easing program, but opinions are divided about whether policy makers will signal that interest rates will begin to rise before next summer. Recent US economic data has been mixed, and with the nation’s sluggish economic recovery jeopardized by growing problems in Europe and elsewhere, the Fed may be reluctant to tighten in the first half of 2015. In economic news, US new home sales inched up 0.2% to an annual rate of 467,000 in September from the revised August rate of 466,000.

The dollar finished the week 1.1% higher against the yen Friday afternoon, benefiting from strong economic data out of the U.S. and Europe. As risk aversion has faded USDJPY has shifted back to trading on fundamentals, driving it higher. This week is an important one, with significant data releases, including retail sales, industrial production, national CPI, household spending and the jobless rate.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 110.11 on September, 2014

Average: 83.18 over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

 

USDJPY(15 minutes)20141025180447

Major Economic Events for the week of October 27-31st

Time

Cur.

Imp.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Monday, October 27

 

 

Holiday

New Zealand – Labour Day

 

  EUR

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct)

 

104.3

104.7

 

 

  USD

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.5%

-1.0%

 

Tuesday, October 28

 

  USD

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.5%

0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)

 

87.0

86.0

 

Wednesday, October 29

 

  NZD

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

3.50%

3.50%

 

Thursday, October 30

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Change (Oct)

 

5K

13K

 

 

  USD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

 

3.0%

4.6%

 

Friday, October 31

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Oct)

 

0.4%

0.3%

 

 

  CAD

 

GDP (MoM) (Aug)

 

 

 

 

 

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction

 

 

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