Weekly Waves 13 November: EUR/USD, Bitcoin and Gold

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD daily chart, the XAU/USD 1 hour chart, and the Bitcoin weekly chart.

EUR/USD Bullish 400 Pips Price Rally

The EUR/USD made a very strong bullish swing last week. Price made a bullish bounce at 0.9950 and rallied 400 pips to reach 1.0350:

1. The EUR/USD rally started after price action completed a bearish ABC (yellow) pattern in wave B (green).
2. The EUR/USD tested and bounced at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support level.
3. A larger ABC (yellow) zigzag seems to be unfolding within a complex WXY (pink) correction of wave 4 (gray).
4. Within the wave C (yellow), price action is moving in a 5 wave pattern (green).
5. We expect wave 3 (green) to finish soon, which is then followed by wave 4 (green) and wave 5 (green).
6. The main target is the -100% Fibonacci level near 1.0450 and 1.05.
7. A bearish ABC (red arrow) should emerge at this target zone.

Bitcoin Bearish Drop Bounces at $15k

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) broke below the support trend lines (dotted green) after moving sideways at the 78.6% Fibonacci support level for a couple of months:

1. The BTC/USD bearish breakout below the 78.6% Fibonacci level confirms a continuation of the bearish wave C (yellow).
2. The target of the bearish wave C (yellow) is now at the 88.6% Fibonacci level at $11.2k. Other rounds levels like $15k and $12.5k will also act as support.
3. Price action already made a bounce at the $15k level but a further decline is possible after the bullish correction is completed.
4. A falling wedge pattern (red arrows) could develop as price action inches closer to the $11k mark.
5. Price action could complete a wave C (yellow) of wave 2 (pink) or a wave C of wave W (orange) of a larger wave 2’ (pink).
6. A bullish bounce (blue arrows) could emerge at the 88.6% Fibonacci level.

Gold Bull Flag Patterns Hint at More Upside

Gold (XAU/USD) is moving up higher within a bullish trend channel after creating a double bottom chart pattern on the 4 hour and daily charts:

1. The Gold chart made several bullish breakouts above the resistance trend line (dotted orange).
2. Gold seems to be developing an impulsive price swing with a 5 wave pattern (green) in wave 3 (yellow).
3. Price action is expected to continue higher (blue arrow) towards the -161.8% Fibonacci target.
4. Once the wave 3 (green) is completed, a bearish retracement (red arrows) is expected within wave 4 (green).
5. The wave 4 (green) remains valid as long as price action remains in the bullish channel.
6. A bullish bounce should take place within wave 5 (green) of wave 5 (yellow).

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter