XRP Bears Enjoying SEC v Ripple Court Silence with Sub-$0.46 in View

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, XRP fell by 3.33% to end the day at sub-$0.48 for the first time since March 27.
• A lack of SEC v Ripple Court rulings left economic indicators and recession fears to influence.
• The technical indicators are bearish, signaling a return to sub-$0.46.

On Thursday, XRP fell by 3.33%. Following a 7.50% tumble on Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.47559. Significantly, XRP ended the day at sub-$0.48 for the first time since March 27.

Tracking the broader crypto market, XRP rose to a mid-morning high of $0.49945 before hitting reverse. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5311, XRP fell to a late afternoon low of $0.46501. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4588, XRP found late support to wrap up the day at $0.47559.

US Recession Fears Send XRP into the Red

It was a quiet Thursday session, with no SEC v Ripple case updates to influence investor sentiment. The lack of Court rulings on pending filings, including the Summary Judgment Reply Briefs, left XRP in the hands of the US economic calendar and the broader crypto market.

After investor sensitivity to the UK and euro area inflation numbers, weak US manufacturing sector and labor market numbers weighed on riskier assets. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index fell from -23.2 to -31.3 versus a forecasted -19.2. US jobless claims were also bearish, with initial jobless claims up from 240k to 245k.

The latest numbers fueled recessionary fears ahead of today’s euro area and US private sector PMI numbers.

The Day Ahead

Economic indicators from the euro area and the US will likely influence the Friday session. Euro area and US flash private sector PMIs will impact market risk sentiment. Weaker private sector activity but a rise in input and output prices would be the worst-case scenario for the market bulls.

FOMC member chatter will also impact risk appetite.

However, while the economic calendar will draw interest, updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case will remain the key driver. Investors should also monitor Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news.

As the dust settles from the Gary Gensler grilling at the Securities and Exchange Oversight hearing, Stuart Alderoty, the Ripple Chief Legal Officer, had this to say about Gensler’s testimony,

“Missed all the excitement yesterday on the Gensler hearing. I am in London, spending time with our team focused on growing our business. Can’t tell you how inept the SEC looks from this side of the pond.”

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.52% to $0.47314. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.47738 before falling to a low of $0.47097.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

XRP needs to move through the $0.4800 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4950 and the Thursday high of $0.49945. A return to $0.49 would signal a bullish session. However, SEC v Ripple chatter and US economic indicators must support a breakout.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.5145. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5489.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4606 in play. However, barring another extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.45 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4456. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4111.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.48524. The 50-day EMA converged on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bearish signals.

A move through the 200-day ($0.48524) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.4950) to target the 100-day ($0.50407) and 50-day ($0.50549) EMAs. However, failure to move through the 200-day EMA ($0.48524) would leave S1 ($0.4606) in view. A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would be a bearish signal.