XRP Faces a Sixth Consecutive Daily Loss as SEC v Ripple Angst Grips

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, XRP saw red for a fifth consecutive day, falling by 0.32% to end the day at $0.46322.
• Investor impatience over the lack of SEC v Ripple case rulings left XRP in the red.
• The technical indicators are bearish, signaling a return to $0.43.

On Wednesday, XRP fell by 0.32%. Following a 0.01% loss on Tuesday, XRP ended the day at $0.46322. Significantly, XRP extended its losing streak to five sessions.

Bearish throughout the morning, XRP fell to a midday low of $0.45047. XRP fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4596 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4545. However, finding afternoon support, XRP rose to a late session high of $0.46552. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4681, XRP eased back to end the day at $0.46322.

SEC v Ripple Silence Leaves XRP in the Cold

It was another quiet session on Wednesday. There were no SEC v Ripple case updates to interest. Investors are awaiting Court rulings from Judge Torres on the Summary Judgment Reply Briefs that will likely influence the decision to move toward a settlement.

Investor anxiety has weighed on XRP, which extended its losing streak to five sessions, with Court rulings likely at any moment.

Amicus Curiae attorney John Deaton had this to say about the timing of the Court judgments,

“Show me where I said I guarantee anything. I Said if you average out Judge Torres’ previous summary judgment decisions following her Daubert rulings, you get 60 days, which would be May 6. I said I will be a bit surprised if it’s not decided by then but not shocked.”

Deaton responded to a tweet stating that three days remain until his prediction fails.

While SEC v Ripple chatter remains the focal point, US economic indicators and the Federal Reserve influenced the afternoon. US economic indicators came in hotter than expected ahead of the Fed.

The ADP reported a 296k increase in nonfarm employment in April versus a forecasted 148k. Employment rose by 142k in March. In April, the all-important ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI eased immediate fears of a US recession. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.2 to 51.9 in April versus a forecasted 51.8.

Overnight, the Fed delivered a less hawkish interest rate decision. Members voiced willingness to consider hitting the pause button following a tenth consecutive interest rate hike.

However, Fed Chair Powell delivered uncertainty during the post-statement press conference, stating that it was too early to call an end to the monetary policy tightening cycle. The US economic indicators likely contributed to the more hawkish tone.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point June interest rate hike rose from 0% to 17.7% on Wednesday.

The Day Ahead

Investors should track SEC v Ripple case-related chatter and look for Court rulings. However, a lack of updates would leave Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news and SEC activity to move the dial.

This afternoon, US economic indicators and corporate earnings will influence XRP and the broader crypto market.

US jobless claims, unit labor costs, and nonfarm productivity will be in focus. Weak labor market numbers would fuel bets on an end to the Fed monetary policy tightening cycle.

US corporate earnings, the banking sector, and US Government debt ceiling-related news will also move the dial. Big names on the US earnings calendar include Apple (AAPL), ConocoPhillips (COP), Shopify Inc. (SHOP), and Moderna (MRNA).

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.30% to $0.46184. A bearish start to the day saw XRP fall from an opening price of $0.46300 to a low of $0.46072.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

XRP needs to avoid the $0.4597 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4690. A breakout from the Wednesday high of $0.46552 would signal a bullish session. However, SEC v Ripple chatter and US economic indicators and corporate earnings must support a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4748 and resistance at $0.48. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4898.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4540 into play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.4450 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4447. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4296.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.46693. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day ($0.46693) and R1 ($0.4690) would give the bulls a run at the 100-day ($0.47368) and 200-day ($0.47458) EMAs and R2 ($0.4748). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.46693) would leave S1 ($0.4540) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.