XRP Falls to Sub-$0.34 on Recession Fears and Fed Monetary Policy

Key Insights:

• On Monday, XRP slid by 6.33%, with the third day in the red from four sessions leaving XRP at sub-$0.34.
• While recent court rulings from the SEC v Ripple case remain a focal point, concerns over the US economy and Fed monetary policy weighed.
• The technical indicators are bearish, with XRP sitting below the 100-day EMA.

On Monday, XRP slid by 6.33%. Following a 0.19% loss on Sunday, XRP ended the day at $0.3359.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.3601 before succumbing to crypto market forces.

Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level at $0.3649, XRP tumbled to a final hour low of $0.3351.

XRP fell through the Major Support Levels to end the day at sub-$0.34 for the first time since July 15.

Updates from the SEC v Ripple Case Muted by Fed Jitters

There were more updates from the SEC v Ripple case, which continues to peg XRP back from a return to $0.40.

On Monday, defense lawyer James Filan shared the latest Ripple filing.

Ripple filed a letter opposing the SEC’s request ‘to impose an unprecedented level of secrecy on these proceedings by sealing all identifying information in the Daubert Motions regarding its five proffered expert witnesses.’

The legal council for the Amici Curiae was also in action.

James Filan shared the filings, saying,

“Amici file response to the SEC’s objection to their motion to participate in the expert challenge and to the SEC’s motions to revoke their status and to bar John Deaton from all further proceedings.”

The latest filings are unlikely to have a material impact on XRP, with investors awaiting the SEC reply brief to the court denying its motion to protect the William Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

The SEC is trying to shield the William Hinman speech-related documents from a 2018 speech.

In 2018, the former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

While investors await the SEC’s next move, market angst over Fed monetary policy and investor fear of a US economic recession sent XRP to sub-$0.34.

This week, US consumer confidence, Q2 GDP, and inflation numbers will draw plenty of interest.

On Wednesday, the Fed monetary policy decision could prove critical, however. While the markets expect a 75-basis point hike, the Fed could hike rates by 50 basis points in response to recent economic indicators that signaled a recession.

In July, the services PMI slid from 52.7 to 47.0, according to prelim figures, reigniting fears of an economic recession. A PMI value below 50.0 indicates a sector contraction. Services account for more than 70% of the US economy.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.39% to $0.3346.

A range-bound start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.3372 before falling to a low of $0.3332.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.3437 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3523 and the Monday high of $0.3601.

XRP would need support from the broader market to return to $0.35.

In the case of an extended crypto rebound, XRP could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3687 and resistance at $0.37.

The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.3937.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3273 in play.

Barring another extended sell-off throughout the day, XRP should avoid sub-$0.32 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3187.

The Third Major Support Level sits at $0.2937.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.3482. Today, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, with both indicators price negatives.

A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would test buyers at $0.32.

However, an XRP move back through the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.3482, would support a run at R1.