XRP News Today: Can ETF Momentum Lift XRP From Bearish Territory?

XRP slumped to a post-flash crash low on Tuesday, November 4, as Bitcoin (BTC) briefly slid below $100,000. The US government shutdown fueled concerns about the US economic outlook, with fading bets of a December Fed rate cut adding to overall gloom. These headwinds overshadowed growing institutional demand and Ripple’s expansion into Main Street.

After sliding 11.84% in October, XRP has tumbled 11.19% in the first four trading sessions of November.

Franklin Templeton Files S-1 Amendment

While XRP faced intense selling pressure in early November, ETF issuers moved closer to launching XRP-spot ETFs.

Franklin Templeton filed an S-1 amendment to circumvent the impact of the US government shutdown. The amended filing stated:

“This registration statement shall hereafter become effective in accordance with the provisions of Section 8(a) of the Securities Act of 1933.”

The S-1 had previously stated:

“The registrant hereby amends this registration statement on such date or dates as may be necessary to delay its effective date until the registrant shall file a further amendment which specifically states that this registration statement shall thereafter become effective in accordance with section 8(a) of the Securities Act of 1933 or until the registration statement shall become effective on such date as the Commission, acting pursuant to said section 8(a), may determine.”

ETF Issuers Aim for November Launches

Franklin Templeton joined Bitwise and Canary Funds in removing the ‘delaying amendment’ language that gave the SEC authority over spot ETF launches. Removing the delaying amendment terms enables ETF issuers to launch their ETFs after a 20-day waiting period.

The US government shutdown entered uncharted territory on Wednesday, November 5, as the Senate stalemate dragged into its 35th day on Tuesday, November 4, equaling the previous shutdown record. The shutdown has left the SEC with a skeleton staff, delaying reviews and approvals.

The S-1 amendments could be a win-win, since issuers may launch the XRP-spot ETFs if the shutdown continues. Meanwhile, the issuers could still launch after the 20-day waiting period if the US government reopens and the SEC has no queries. The SEC would likely seek to avoid granting any issuer a first-to-market advantage if the US government reopens.

However, Canary Funds could be the first US XRP-spot ETF to launch if the US Senate stalemate continues for another week.

CryptoAmerica host and journalist Eleanor Terrett previously shared the Canary Fund XRP ETF S-1 amendment filing on October 30, stating:

“This sets Canary’s XRP ETF up for a launch date of November 13, assuming the Nasdaq greenlights the 8-A filing.”

Technical Outlook: Key XRP Price Levels

XRP slid 4.5% on Tuesday, November 4, after the previous day’s 8.65% plunge, closing at $2.2059. The token tracked the broader crypto market, which slid 4.81%.

Following October’s 11.84% loss, this week’s sell-off left the token trading well below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating strong bearish momentum. However, certain events could trigger a rebound.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.6082.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.5961.
• Resistance levels: $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Catalysts to Watch in the Sessions Ahead

In the near term, several key events could influence price trends:

• A US Senate vote.
• XRP-spot ETFs (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s stance on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies’ demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.2

• BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• The US government shutdown continues, delaying the launch of XRP-spot ETFs.
• The US Senate challenges crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT maintains its market share in the global remittance sector, limiting Ripple’s market access.

These bearish events could push XRP below $2.2, exposing the $2.0 psychological support level. If breached, the June 2025 low of $1.9112 would be the next key support level.

The descending channel showed the token repeatedly testing the upper trendline in early October. However, XRP failed to break above the upper resistance, resulting in lower highs and lower lows, a bearish indicator. The October and early November pullback saw XRP test buyer demand at the lower trendline. If breached, XRP could drop toward the $2 psychological support level. See the chart below for reference.

Bullish Scenario: Path to $3 Remains Challenging

• The US government reopens, and the SEC staff return to work.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and XRP-spot ETFs launch.
• Blue-chip companies purchase XRP holdings for treasury reserve purposes, and Main Street adopts Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the US Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.

Staying above the November 4 low of $2.0677 may open the door to retesting the $2.35 resistance level. A break above $2.35 could signal a bearish trend reversal, paving the way toward $2.5. See the chart below.

Outlook: Bullish Longer-Term Outlook Intact

XRP’s near-term path depends largely on the US government shutdown, spot ETF launches, and the Fed’s rate outlook.

While rate-cut expectations have faded recently, renewed speculation could boost demand for XRP-spot ETFs after launch, potentially sending the token to new highs.

Traders should also monitor the Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill. Crypto-friendly legislation could ignite a broader market rally. However, XRP could be the main beneficiary, given the price action following the House’s passing of the bill to the Senate. XRP soared 14.69% on July 17 in reaction to the House vote, while BTC gained just 0.39%.