XRP News Today: ETF Inflows Cushion XRP as BoJ Uncertainty Grows

XRP dropped to its lowest level since November 23, on Sunday, December 14. The token also failed to reclaim the $2.0 handle for the first time since November 22. Market jitters about the looming Bank of Japan monetary policy decision overshadowed positive price catalysts.

In July 2024, the Bank of Japan cut Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases and unexpectedly raised interest rates to 0.5%. The monetary policy tightening coincided with a dovish Fed, triggering a yen carry trade unwind.

Sunday’s pullback came despite the US XRP-spot ETF market extending its inflow streak to nineteen consecutive days. While the dip below $2 weighed on sentiment, the cautiously bullish short- and bullish medium-term outlook remains intact.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

Bank of Japan Rate Hike and Neutral Rate in Focus

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda signaled an imminent rate hike last week, citing wage growth and easing US tariff risks. Economists expect the BoJ to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% on Friday, December 19. A rate hike would follow the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut last week and would narrow the rate differential in favor of the yen.

Narrowing interest rate differentials make yen carry trades less profitable, leading to traders exiting positions in risk assets and repaying yen loans. 10-year JGB yields climbed to their highest level since April 2007 last week, fueling fears of a yen carry trade unwind.

Crucially, uncertainty about the BoJ’s neutral interest rate, where monetary policy is neither accommadative nor restrictive, has added to the market jitters. The BoJ may declare its neutral rate on Friday, December 19. The higher the neutral rate, the more rate hikes needed, and the narrower the US-Japan rate differential.

The inverse relationship between 10-year JGB yields and XRP price trends underscores the significance of the upcoming BoJ interest rate decision and a potential neutral rate announcement.

Despite the market jitters, 10-year JGB yields have been on an upward trend since April 2025. Yields have not spiked to cause market disruption. Crucially, a 25-basis-point BoJ rate hike to 0.75% would still make yen carry trades profitable, albeit less attractive. On this basis, assuming the BoJ’s neutral rate is below 1.5%–2%, any market impact from a rate hike will likely be short-lived.

For context, the mid-2024 yen carry trade unwind sent XRP crashing from $0.6591 on July 31, 2024, to $0.4320 on August 5, 2024, a 34.5% loss. However, the sell-off was short-lived, with XRP reclaiming the $0.6 handle on August 7, 2024.

US XRP-Spot ETFs Inflows Cushion the Downside

While speculation about a yen carry trade influenced market sentiment, robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs limited Sunday’s losses.

The US XRP-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $87.46 million in the reporting week ending Friday, December 12. A nineteen-day inflow streak sent total inflows since launch to $974.5 million, underscoring strong institutional demand.

Looking ahead, increased XRP adoption and crypto-friendly legislation would likely boost inflows, supporting a bullish short- to medium-term price outlook.

Last week, the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) announced the conditional approval of Ripple’s US-chartered banking license. The license will likely drive XRP utility, given that institutions using RLUSD can convert to XRP for FX bridging, liquidity operations, and cross-border payments.

Bullish Medium-Term Outlook Hinges on the BoJ, ETFs, and Legislation

The BoJ interest rate decision and forward guidance will be key for near-term price trends. However, legislative developments on Capitol Hill and XRP-spot ETF flows will also influence sentiment.

Crypto in America host Eleanor Terrett shared an interview with Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger. Mersinger expected the Market Structure Bill to be on the Senate Floor for a vote in the first quarter, stating:

“If things move the way they look like they’re moving, there’s a good chance that we could have market structure on the Senate floor in the first quarter of next year.”

Clear rules of the road for the US digital asset space would legitimize XRP. Combined with its increased utility, a crypto-friendly regulatory landscape would open the door to a wider investor base. XRP-spot ETFs would be a beneficiary, supporting the bullish medium- to longer-term price outlook.

In my view, these scenarios would support a near-term (1-4 weeks) move to $2.35 and a medium-term (4-8 weeks) climb to $2.5. A return to $2.5 would align with a longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3 plus price target.

Downside Risks to Bullish Outlook

While the short- to medium-term outlook remains bullish, several scenarios could derail the bullish sentiment. These include:

• The Bank of Japan hikes interest rates and signals multiple rate hikes, leading to a yen carry trade unwind.
• The MSCI delists digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Delistings would likely reduce interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• US Senate opposes the Market Structure Bill.
• XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.

These events would likely drag XRP toward $1.9, exposing the November low of $1.82.

However, in my opinion, robust XRP-spot ETF inflows, a widening investor base, and progress toward crypto-friendly legislation support a longer-term move toward $3.

In summary, the short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish as fundamentals outweigh the technicals. Meanwhile, the medium- to longer-term outlook is constructive.

Financial Analysis

Technical Outlook: EMAs Signal Caution

XRP fell 2.28% on Sunday, December 14, reversing the previous day’s 0.78% gain to close at $1.9774. The token tracked the broader crypto market, which declined 2.07%.

Sunday’s pullback left XRP below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish bias. While the technicals remain bearish, fundamentals are increasingly outweighing the technical structure.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $1.9112 and $1.8239
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.2140.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.4478.
• Resistance levels: $2, $2.2, $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

XRP advanced 0.91% in morning trading on Monday, December 15, 2025. A break above the $2.0 psychological resistance level would open the door to retesting the $2.2 resistance level and the 50-day EMA. A breakout above $2.2 and the 50-day EMA would enable the bulls to target the $2.35 resistance level.

Importantly, a sustained break above the 50-day EMA would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would suggest a medium-term (4-8 weeks) rise toward the 200-day EMA and the $2.5 level.

Fundamental Indicators: Corporate Interest, ETF Demand, and Legislation

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flows.
• Blue-chip companies’ positions on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Crypto-related legislative developments on Capitol Hill.
• MSCI’s decision on DAT listings.
• The BoJ’s interest rate decisions and forward guidance.

Bullish Structure: What Happens if XRP Reclaims $2.0?

A break above the $2.0 handle and a move above the lower trendline would pave the way to the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would reinforce the bullish medium-term (4–8 weeks) target of $2.5 and longer-term (8–12 weeks) target of $3.0.

However, rejection at the lower trendline and a break below $1.8239 would invalidate the medium-term bullish structure.

Outlook: Reclaiming $2.0 Key to Short-Term Outlook

In the week ahead, US economic indicators, the Market Structure Bill’s progress, the BoJ’s forward guidance on monetary policy, and XRP-spot ETF flows will dictate near-term trends.

Bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill and strong XRP-spot ETF inflows are likely to overshadow a hawkish BoJ.

However, US inflation and jobs data will also require consideration. Hotter inflation and a resilient labor market would temper bets on a Q1 2026 Fed rate cut. A more hawkish Fed rate path would leave borrowing costs higher for longer, another potential headwind for XRP.

To summarize, robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs and progress toward crypto legislation support a short-term move to $2.35. Increased XRP utility and the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would reinforce the medium-term (4–8 weeks) target of $2.5 and the longer-term (8–12 weeks) target of $3.0.

Market disruption from the BoJ and the Fed remains a downside risk to the bullish outlook.