XRP News Today: Market Structure Bill Delay Extends XRP Losing Streak

The US Senate Agriculture Committee delays the Market Structure Bill markup, leaving XRP with a seven-day losing streak.

Market anticipation of the US Banking Committee and Agriculture Committee markups progressing the Bill sent XRP to a January 6 high of $2.4151. However, the token has since fallen to a low of $2.0328, underscoring the significance of crypto-related legislative developments on XRP price action.

Despite the reversal from January’s high, XRP has rallied 11.5% year-to-date, supporting a bullish medium-term price outlook.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

US Senate Agriculture Committee Delays Markup

On Monday, January 12, the US Senate Agriculture Committee announced a delay to the Market Structure Bill markup scheduled for January 15. Chairman John Boozman issued a press release, stating:

“I remain committed to advancing bipartisan crypto market structure legislation. We have made meaningful progress and had constructive discussions as we work toward this goal. I appreciate the leadership of Senator Booker and his team as we address these complex policy issues. To finalize the remaining details and ensure the broad support this legislation requires, additional time is needed before moving to markup. The Committee will mark up this legislation during the last week of January.”

There were no details on the remaining hurdles to clear, which need to be merged with the US Senate Banking Committee markup. The US Senate Agriculture Committee comprises 12 Republicans and 11 Democrats.

Reports of a potential delay to the markup surfaced last week, fueling uncertainty about the timing of crypto-friendly legislation.

Legislative Context and Market Impact

Meanwhile, the US Senate Banking Committee markup is scheduled for January 15, amid optimism about progressing to clear text. Last weekend, the Committee stated:

“Chairman Senator Tim Scott is moving forward on digital asset market structure legislation – delivering clear rules that protect Main Street, keep innovation here at home, and safeguard US national security.”

Analysts expect the Market Structure Bill to fuel retail and institutional demand for XRP, given the token’s real-world utility. XRP’s price action has underscored the significance of crypto-legislation.

XRP surged 14.69% on July 17 after the US House of Representatives passed the Market Structure Bill to the Senate. However, the lengthy US government shutdown dampened hopes that legislation would be in place by the end of 2025, sending XRP to a December low of $1.7712. XRP then rallied to an eight-week high of $2.4151 on January 6 after the US Senate Banking Committee announced the January 15 markup.

Path to Passage and Timeline Risks

If the US Senate Banking Committee approves the draft text, the market focus will turn to the US Senate Agriculture Committee. Approved text from the US Senate Agriculture Committee would merge with the US Senate Banking Committee text, setting the stage for a Senate floor vote. If passed, the Bill would return to the House of Representatives.

The timing of the Market Structure Bill reaching President Trump would hinge on whether the House makes changes to the Senate’s cleared text.

Crypto in America host Eleanor Terrett commented on the potential timelines for crypto legislation, stating:

“And March is the absolute earliest. Could even be the summer if the House decided to make changes to what the Senate sends them.”

Despite the latest setback, the progress of the Market Structure Bill and the robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs reinforce the bullish short- to medium-term price trajectory.

XRP Price Outlook and Targets

The progress of the Market Structure Bill, increased XRP utility, and strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs support a cautiously positive short-term (1-4 weeks) outlook, with a $2.5 price target.

Furthermore, hopes for the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill reaffirm the bullish longer-term price targets:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.66.

Key Risks to Bullish Outlook

Several scenarios could derail the positive projections. These include:

• The Bank of Japan declares a hawkish neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%), indicating multiple rate hikes. A higher neutral rate may trigger a yen carry trade unwind, which would derail the short-term outlook.
• US economic indicators and the Fed are cooling bets on an H1 2026 rate cut.
• US lawmakers oppose the Market Structure Bill, further delaying crypto legislation.
• XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.

These scenarios would likely trigger a sell-off, pushing XRP below $2, which would signal a bearish trend reversal.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

XRP fell 0.93% on Monday, January 12, following the previous day’s 0.79% loss, closing at $2.0529. The token faced heavier selling pressure than the broader crypto market cap, which slipped 0.01%.

Seven consecutive daily losses left XRP below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a bearish longer-term bias. However, the fundamentals remain bullish and dominant.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.0, $1.75, and then $1.50.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.0706.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.3301.
• Resistance levels: $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.

Viewing the daily chart, a break above the 50-day EMA would pave the way toward $2.2. A move through $2.2 would open the door to testing the 200-day EMA. A sustained move through the EMAs would indicate a bullish trend reversal, bringing the $2.5 resistance level into play.

Crucially, a break above the EMAs would reinforce the bullish medium-term outlook and the longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3.66 price target.

Fundamental Drivers to Monitor

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flows.
• US economic data and the Fed’s rate path.
• US crypto-related regulatory developments.

Holding Above $2 Remains Critical

Avoiding a drop below the $2 psychological support level will be pivotal for the short- to medium-term outlook. Bullish fundamentals continue to outweigh bearish technicals, indicating a recovery. Despite seven days in the red, January’s gains affirmed the bullish structure and constructive short- to medium-term bias.

A breakout above $2.2 would enable the bulls to target the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would reaffirm the bullish trend reversal and validate the bullish structure, supporting the price targets:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8–12 weeks): target of $3.66.

However, a drop below $2.0 would bring the lower trendline into play. A breach of the lower trendline would invalidate the bullish structure, signaling a bearish trend reversal.

Outlook:

Looking ahead, today’s US CPI report, central bank rhetoric, the Banking Committee markup, and XRP-spot ETF flows will influence the near-term price outlook.

Softer US inflation, increased expectations of a March Fed rate cut, and a dovish BoJ neutral rate (potentially 1%-1.25%) would lift sentiment. Strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs and bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the constructive bias.

In summary, strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs and crypto-related regulatory developments support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $3.0. A March Fed rate cut and the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the longer-term (8–12 weeks) price target of $3.66.

Looking beyond the 12-week time horizon, these catalysts are likely to drive XRP above its all-time high $3.66. A break above $3.66 would reinforce a price target of $5 over a 6- to 12-month timeline.