SEC Appeal Withdrawal Hopes Drive XRP Demand
On Saturday, March 15, XRP advanced by 1.45%, following Friday’s 4.66% rally to close at $2.3925. Significantly, XRP extended its winning streak to five sessions, outpacing the broader crypto market, which gained 0.98%, taking the total market cap to $2.72 trillion.
XRP flipped ethereum (ETH) on its five-day winning streak, becoming the second-largest crypto by fully diluted valuation (FDV). However, it still lags behind ETH in CoinMarketCap’s rankings.
Investor speculation about the SEC possibly withdrawing its appeal in the Ripple case and settling continues to drive XRP demand.
SEC Actions Fuel Speculation on Appeal Withdrawal
Since forming the Crypto Task Force, the SEC has taken several notable actions:
- Dismissed enforcement cases against Coinbase (COIN) and Kraken.
- Withdrew an appeal in the Blockchain Association and Crypto Freedom Alliance of Texas (CFAT) case.
- Closed investigations into Opensea, Robinhood (HOOD), and Uniswap.
- Requested stays in the Binance and Lejilex cases.
Notably, while the SEC did not dismiss its charges against Binance and Lejilex, it requested additional time for the Crypto Task Force to consider its approach.
In the SEC vs. Ripple case, Ripple must file its appeal-related reply brief by April 16, giving the agency ample time to strategize its next move without rushing into a decision.
Settlement Speculation Intensifies
This week, speculation about a potential SEC-Ripple settlement intensified. On March 12, Fox Business Journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that the SEC and Ripple were negotiating Judge Torres’ Final Judgment, boosting XRP demand. Reports suggest Ripple is negotiating the $125 million settlement and an injunction, requiring compliance with Section 5 of the US Securities Act.
A settlement would eliminate the SEC’s appeal against Judge Torres’ Programmatic Sales ruling.
However, Ripple is absent from the Crypto Task Force’s meetings list, which is updated to March 6. If discussions began only recently, the absence of documented meetings raises doubts about active settlement negotiations between Ripple and the SEC. Despite the market optimism, the SEC’s silence on the Ripple case leaves XRP well below its all-time high of $3.5505.
XRP Price Trends: SEC Appeal and XRP-Spot ETFs in Focus
Despite Gary Gensler’s departure and the SEC’s overhaul, the agency has remained silent on the Ripple case. The near-term trajectory hinges on two key factors: the SEC’s appeal strategy and potential XRP-spot ETF approvals.
- Bullish Scenario: If the SEC withdraws its appeal, XRP could surge past its all-time high of $3.5505. Approval of XRP-spot ETFs could further fuel institutional demand, pushing prices toward $5.
- Bearish Scenario: If the SEC proceeds with its appeal and rejects XRP-spot ETFs, XRP could plummet below $1.50.
XRP Price Action
Daily Chart
Despite a five-day winning streak, XRP remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating lingering resistance, but it holds above the 200-day EMA, signaling long-term support.
If XRP breaks above the 50-day EMA, bulls could target the March 2 high of $3.0153 as the next resistance level. A return to $3.0153 may signal a climb toward the January 16 high of $3.3999. Favorable Ripple case-related news may bring the all-time high of $3.5505 into sight.
Conversely, an XRP drop below the $1.9299 support level and the 200-day EMA could bring the February 3 low of $1.7024 into play.
With a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 49.68, XRP could drop below the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).
Market Outlook: Uncertainty Remains a Headwind
XRP’s outlook remains tied to regulatory developments, particularly the SEC’s appeal decision. However, broader macroeconomic factors, including US tariffs, the FOMC interest rate decision, and the FOMC economic projections, could also impact XRP demand.
In January, XRP surged to $3.3999 on expectations of an SEC appeal withdrawal and optimism surrounding a Trump pro-crypto stance. However, US tariff tensions and a more hawkish Fed stance drove XRP below $2 before rebounding.
Investors should closely monitor SEC actions, as any decision on the Ripple appeal or XRP-spot ETFs could trigger XRP’s next major price move.
Don’t miss our latest price forecast—click here.
