SEC vs. Ripple Case: Closed Meeting Looms
After last week’s brutal sell-off across the global equity markets, XRP investors face another week of heightened uncertainty. Two crucial events will likely dictate XRP and the broader crypto market’s near-term trajectory.
The upcoming Closed SEC Meeting on Thursday, April 10, will draw significant investor interest. The SEC has yet to comment on whether it will withdraw the appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling despite Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stating that the SEC plans to withdraw.
Thursday’s Closed Meeting gives Acting Chair Mark Uyeda, Crypto Task Force Head Hester Peirce, and Commissioner Caroline Cranshaw a chance to vote on the Ripple appeal. Given the 2-1 Republican majority favoring an end to non-fraudulent enforcement cases, a decision to withdraw appears likely.
However, the SEC’s three-week silence contrasts with its swift action in the Coinbase (COIN) case, where it formally dismissed the case just one week after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong declared a dismissal. An appeal withdrawal could potentially boost the chances of a US XRP-spot ETF market and potentially increase institutional demand.
Tariff Developments May Prove Crucial for XRP
While the SEC vs. Ripple case remains a central focus, US tariff developments and trade negotiations are equally crucial.
The second major event of the week will be the expected rollout of US tariffs on Wednesday, April 9. Trump’s 10% baseline tariffs took effect on Saturday, April 5, highlighting the administration’s commitment despite recent market turbulence.
An intensifying global trade war, with key economies such as China, the EU, and Japan introducing tariffs, could send risk assets deeper into the red. Crypto correlation with the global equity markets may also affect the chances of a crypto Strategic Reserve Asset.
Since January 31, XRP has tumbled 39%. Key contributors to the decline include:
Bitcoin Price Forecast
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See all Bitcoin forecasts- SEC’s silence on the appeal withdrawal.
- Trump’s decision to exclude XRP from consideration as a Strategic Reserve Asset.
- US tariffs and countermeasures.
XRP Price Outlook: Legal and ETF Catalysts
On Sunday, April 6, XRP plunged 10.38%, reversing Saturday’s 0.73% gain, closing at $1.9217. XRP underperformed the broader market, which slid 6.88% to a total crypto market cap of $2.46 trillion.
The rollout of baseline US tariffs has intensified fears of a global recession, triggering the Sunday sell-off. However, several catalysts could shift sentiment:
- SEC vs. Ripple Court Filings: An appeal withdrawal, resolution of Ripple’s cross-appeal, or a settlement could send XRP toward its record high of $3.5505.
- XRP-Spot ETF Prospects: Regulatory approval could boost institutional interest, while delays may limit the upside.
- Macroeconomic risks: Worsening trade tensions, elevated US inflation, or hawkish Fed guidance could pressure XRP toward $1.7938. Conversely, easing headwinds might drive a rebound toward $3.00.
See our full XRP forecast here.
Bitcoin Sinks as Yen Carry Trade Unwinds
XRP’s losses coincided with bitcoin (BTC) dropping below $80k for the first time since March 11. US tariffs and slow progress toward the Bitcoin Act weighed on sentiment.
Higher tariffs may drive inflationary pressures, supporting a more hawkish Fed stance. Rising borrowing costs affect demand for risk assets. Notably, the USD/JPY dropped below 145 in early trading on Monday, April 7, raising concerns about a renewed Yen carry trade unwind.
In a carry trade, investors take advantage of Japan’s low interest rates, borrowing Japanese Yen (funding currency) to invest in higher-yielding assets, typically with leverage, to boost returns. A Yen carry trade unwind in 2024 resulted from the BoJ’s policy shift and Yen appreciation. In August 2024, BTC fell 8.85% amid post-BoJ volatility.
As of April 2025, the USD/JPY has tumbled 3.23% to 145.108, its lowest level since the carry trade unwind, with BTC down 6.29%. Trump’s tariff actions have triggered a flight to safety boosting demand for the Yen, and accelerating the market sell-off.
Journalist and CryptoAmerica host Eleanor Terrett commented on Sunday’s sell-off:
“On Friday, Bitcoiners celebrated as the asset they call ‘digital gold’ finally started to act like a safe haven and hedge against extreme volatility, bucking the trend of a tanking equities market. Today, BTC dipped under $80,000 for the first time since mid-March as traders prepare for Monday’s open and what one market analyst told Charles Gasparino of Fox News could be the ultimate pain day.”
BTC Price Outlook: Bearish and Bullish Scenarios
On April 6, BTC dropped 6.14%, following Saturday’s 0.48% loss to close at $78,301.
BTC scenarios include:
- Bearish Scenario: Escalating trade tensions, hotter US inflation, a hawkish Fed stance, extended BTC-spot ETF outflows, or opposition to the Bitcoin Act could drag BTC toward $70,000.
- Bullish Scenario: Softer US inflation data, a dovish Fed, tariff de-escalation, bipartisan crypto support, and sustained ETF inflows could lift BTC toward $109,312.
Market Outlook: Themes to Watch
Several key drivers will guide crypto market sentiment in the coming days:
- Developments in the SEC vs. Ripple case.
- Tariff escalations and retaliatory measures.
- Progress on the Bitcoin Act.
- The US CPI Report (April 10).
- BTC-spot ETF flow trends and investor positioning.
While recent SEC signals may ease near-term concerns, longer-term sentiment hinges on regulatory clarity. Explore what analysts say is needed for cryptos to reach new highs.