Speculation about the SEC dropping its appeal in the Ripple case and XRP-spot ETF approvals boosted XRP demand. The token rose 0.20% on Saturday, July 12, following Friday’s 7.31% rally, closing at $2.7379. While extending its winning streak to five sessions, XRP fell short of the July 11 high of $2.9727. The broader crypto market fell 0.16% to a total crypto market cap of $3.61 trillion.
Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan remarked on the recent breakout, stating:
“Wow, despite these extraordinary figures about BlackRock acquisitions of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and XRP not even having a spot ETF yet, XRP is outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum.”
Optimism over the SEC dropping its appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling fueled expectations of the agency approving the XRP-spot ETF applications.
XRP is up 21.61% this week, while BTC and ETH have gained 6.85% and 14.68%, respectively. For context, BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported net inflows of $1,759 million in the week ending July 11, ranking #2 on the weekly inflow table, while the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) ranked #6.
Last week’s inflows underscored the potential significance of BlackRock filing for an XRP-spot ETF.
On July 1, the SEC approved the request for a rule change to convert Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into the Grayscale Digital Large Cap ETF (GDLC). The ETF invests in BTC, ETH, ADA, SOL, and XRP, potentially giving early indications of demand for altcoin-spot ETFs. However, the SEC simultaneously issued a stay order delaying the launch.
The SEC stated the delay was to allow the agency to roll out a framework for ETF issuers to follow to simplify and accelerate the approval process. However, Grayscale contested the SEC’s stay order on July 11, drawing broader market interest.
A removal of the stay order could potentially expedite the approval of XRP-spot ETFs. Meanwhile, a framework for crypto-spot ETF filings and approvals could prompt BlackRock to file for an XRP-spot ETF. The ETF issuer met with the SEC Crypto Task Force in May to discuss ETF approval standards.
According to Polymarket, the chances of an XRP-spot ETF approval by December 2025 stand at 88%, up from 75.9% on June 27 but down from 90.5% on July 7.
The near-term price outlook hinges on the SEC’s appeal vote and crypto-spot ETF-related headlines. If the SEC withdraws its appeal, XRP could retarget its all-time high of $3.5505, with ETF approval potentially fueling a rally toward $5. However, the SEC’s silence on its appeal could impact sentiment.
XRP trades above the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), signaling bullish momentum.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 79.71, indicating that XRP is in overbought territory (RSI > 70). Selling pressure may intensify at the July 11 high of $2.9727.
XRP remains highly sensitive to external catalysts. The token previously struck a January 2025 high of $3.3999 on optimism surrounding the Ripple case and pro-crypto signals from Donald Trump.
Still, broader macro headwinds—rising trade tensions and Fed monetary policy signals—continue to influence sentiment.
Looking ahead, legislative developments, SEC appeal-related news, and ETF-related updates will remain the primary drivers of XRP’s performance.
Click here for expert XRP price forecasts and upcoming SEC deadlines.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.