XRP Price Movement in the Hands of Powell and the Courts

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, XRP fell for the second time in six sessions.
• Updates from the SEC v Ripple case failed to inspire as investors held out for Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday.
• The technical indicators remain bearish. With XRP sitting below the 50-day EMA, an XRP return to sub-$0.30 remains in play.

On Wednesday, XRP fell by 0.41%. Partially reversing a 0.84% gain from Tuesday, XRP ended the day at $0.3456.

Tracking the broader crypto market, XRP slid to an early low of $0.3390 before making a move. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3373, XRP struck a day high of $0.3525.

However, coming up against the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3522, XRP eased back to sub-$0.35 and into the red.

Updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case failed to shift the crypto market focus away from US economic indicators ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech from Jackson Hole.

Economic Indicators Tip the Balance in Favor of a 50-Basis Point Hike

US economic indicators came in ahead of forecasts on Wednesday. However, the numbers fell short of driving bets of a 75-basis point hike in September.

Core Durable Goods Orders increased by 0.3% in July, following a downwardly revised 0.3% rise in June. Economists forecast a 0.2% increase.

Today’s US stats could have more influence, with Q2 GDP and jobless claims figures in focus. On Tuesday, service sector PMIs pointed to a Q3 contraction. The GDP estimates may deliver a market-friendly 50-basis point rate hike.

Aside from the economic calendar, the SEC v Ripple case is also closely watched.

On Wednesday, defense attorney James Filan shared the latest SEC filing. Filan tweeted,

“The SEC has filed a request to file one omnibus (big) reply, up to 90 pages in length, in further support of its Motion to Exclude the Testimony of Defendants’ Expert Witnesses.”

According to the filing to Judge Analisa Torres, Ripple requested,

“11 pages for each reply brief in further support of Defendants’ motions to exclude the SEC’s five experts.”

The requests come at a testy time for XRP holders who await a pivotal Court ruling. Following the Court’s decision to deny the SEC motion to shield the Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege, the Court is currently considering an SEC objection to the July court ruling.

The former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, is a central figure in the SEC v Ripple case. In a famous 2018 speech, Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 1.02% to $0.34897.

A bullish start to the day saw XRP rise from a low of $0.34567 to a high of $0.34918.

Technical Indicators

Avoiding the $0.3457 pivot would support a run at the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3524 and the Wednesday high of $0.3525.

XRP will need broader market support for a return to $0.35.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3592 and resistance at $0.36.

The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.3727.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3389 into play. Barring a broad-based crypto sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3300. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3322 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3187.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.34988.

Following Monday’s bearish cross, the 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. The XRP price signals were bearish.

A further pullback of the 50-day EMA from the 200-day EMA would bring the Major Support Levels into play. However, an XRP move through the 50-day EMA ($0.34988) would give the bulls a run at R1 (0.3524) and the 100-day EMA ($0.35709).