XRP Price Return to $0.50 in the Hands of the SEC v Ripple Case

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, XRP slid by 5.64% to end the week at $0.44835.
• Investor hopes of a swift and favorable conclusion to the SEC v Ripple case waned, with the SEC likely to appeal.
• However, the technical indicators remain bullish, with XRP sitting above the 100-day EMA, supporting a return to $0.50.

On Sunday, XRP slid by 5.64%. Following a 1.03% loss on Saturday, XRP ended the week down 8.60% to $0.44835.

A range-bound start to the day saw XRP rise to a mid-morning high of $0.47801 before hitting reverse. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4847, XRP slid to a final hour (UTC) low of $0.4440.

XRP fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4667 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4582 to end the day at sub-$0.45.

XRP tracked the broader crypto market into negative territory, with investor angst over the Fed and the economic outlook weighing. However, slow progress towards a conclusion to the SEC v Ripple saga added further price pressure.

Fears of a Drawn-Out SEC Battle to Shield the Hinman Docs Resurface

Last week, the defendants in the SEC v Ripple case won another major victory, tipping the scales in favor of a Ripple win.

Judge Torres overruled the SEC’s objection to the Court denying the SEC motion to protect the William Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

In a famous 2018 speech, Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

The SEC has made at least seven attempts to shield the documents under the attorney-client privilege. Yet, despite numerous Court orders to turn over the documents, the SEC has failed to comply.

The SEC’s unwillingness to turn over the documents suggests that the docs may have damaging content not just to the case but for the SEC and its view on cryptos.

There has been a lack of commentary since Thursday’s ruling, which suggests an appeal is on the cards. In a series of tweets, defense attorney James Filan shared his thoughts on the SEC’s options. These included,

• Ask Judge Torres to reconsider her overruling the SEC objection.
• Request the Court to certify an appeal of the Court decision.
• Go to the Court of Appeals on a Petition for Writ of Mandamus.
• All the above.

One or all of the above could see the case drag on. However, according to James Filan, the Court schedule remains unchanged. October 18 is the next key date, where parties must file all materials relating to oppositions to summary judgment motions, including briefs, counterstatements, and supporting exhibits.

Over the coming days, we expect heightened XRP sensitivity to updates, with a lack of news likely to test investor appetite.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 1.16% to $0.45357. Finding support from the broader market, XRP rose from an early low of $0.44526 to a high of $0.45361.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.4568 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4696 and the Sunday high of $0.47801. Talk of an SEC appeal would likely limit the upside.

However, in the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4908 and $0.50. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5248.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4356 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.4250 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4228.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3888.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.43965. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA. The signals were mixed.

An XRP move through the 50-day EMA ($0.46028) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.4696) to target R2 ($0.4908). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($0.43965) would give the bears a run at S1 ($0.4356). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.40985.