Australia Leading Economic Index

Last Release

Jul 31, 2025

Actual

0.1

Units In

-0.03

Frequency

Monthly

Next Release

Sep 18, 2025

Time to Release

20 Days 3 Hours

Highest	Lowest	Average	Date Range	Source
0.76 Nov 2020	-1.74 Apr 2020	0 %	1960-2025	Westpac-Melbourne Institute

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity combines a selection of economic variables that typically lead fluctuations in economic activity into a single measure that provides a reliable cyclical indicator for the Australian economy. The index includes the following components: S&P/ASX 200, dwelling approvals, US industrial production, RBA Commodity Prices Index (A$), aggregate monthly hours worked, Westpac-MI CSI expectations index, Westpac-MI Unemployment expectations index, yield spread (10Y bond – 90D bill). The index has a base value of 100 as of 1996.

Latest Updates

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index for Australia edged up 0.1% month-over-month in July 2025, after being flat in the previous month. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate ticked up to 0.12% from 0.01%, pointing to sluggish momentum in the second half of 2025 and early 2026. “The recovery that began last year continues, but at a slow pace,” said Matthew Hassan, Westpac’s Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting. Westpac projects GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, up slightly from 1.3% in 2024, with growth only expected to return to its 2.2% trend pace by late 2026. Hassan noted that “further interest rate easing will likely be required to ensure the recovery regains traction.” Still, the RBA is unlikely to rush, as the impact of past cuts is still flowing through the economy, and the labor market is only gradually softening. On balance, Westpac expects the central bank to hold rates in September before delivering another 25bps cut in November.