Canada Interest Rate

The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark overnight rate by 25bps to 2.25% in its October 2025 meeting, as expected by markets, and signaled that it likely done with its cutting cycle if its base economic projection holds under the current uncertain backdrop. The cut followed a 25bps rate reduction last meeting, the first since March, as headline inflation hovered around the 2% target while tariffs from the US and a slowing job market drove the Governing Council to opt for looser financing conditions. Policymakers noted that structural damage caused by trade conflict reduced capacity in the economy, consistent with the annualized 1.6% contraction in the Q2 GDP. Still, the BoC expects the GDP to expand by 1.2% this year and 1.1% next year. In the meantime, the BoC's preferred core inflation gauges remained sticky around the 3% level, but the Council seas underlying price growth converging towards target under the current rate.