United Kingdom Interest Rate

The Bank of England’s MPC voted 5–4 to keep the Bank Rate at 4% at its 5 November meeting, in line with expectations. Four members preferred a 25 bps cut to 3.75%, reflecting growing support for easing. Policymakers noted that CPI inflation has peaked and underlying disinflation is progressing, helped by a still-restrictive policy stance, softer pay growth, and easing services inflation. A subdued economy and rising labour-market slack are also reinforcing disinflation. The MPC said risks around achieving the 2% target are now more evenly balanced: inflation persistence has become less concerning, while downside risks from weak demand have grown. Still, members stressed the need for more evidence on both fronts. As previous rate cuts have reduced policy restrictiveness, future reductions will depend on incoming data. If disinflation continues as expected, the Bank Rate is likely to move lower gradually.