United Kingdom Interest Rate

The Bank of England raised the key Bank Rate by 25bps to 1% during its May 2022 meeting, which is the 4th consecutive rate hike, pushing borrowing costs to the highest since early 2009. The decision came in line with expectations although 3 members voted for a bigger 50bps increase. Policymakers said global inflationary pressures have intensified sharply following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which has led to a material deterioration in the outlook for UK growth. The UK economy is estimated to have risen by 0.9% in Q1 but the GDP is expected to be broadly unchanged in Q2 and to contract around 1% in Q4, due to a decline in households’ incomes, including that stemming from the projected rise of around 40% in retail gas and electricity prices when the Ofgem price caps are next reset in October. In 2023, GDP is seen shrinking by 0.25%. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to rise further over the remainder of the year, to just over 9% in Q2 and averaging slightly over 10% at its peak in Q4.