Bank of Canada seen leaving rates unchanged as growth stalls

By Steve Scherer

OTTAWA (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates on hold on Wednesday, becoming the first of the world’s major central banks to suspend their tightening campaign, after economic growth stalled in the fourth quarter of last year.

When the bank last met to set policy in January, it lifted rates by 25 basis point, as expected, to 4.50%, and said it would seek to leave rates unchanged for a while to let previous rate hikes sink in.

Over the past year, the bank raised rates by a total of 425 basis points to tame inflation, which peaked at 8.1% and slowed to 5.9% in January, still almost three times the 2% target.

“We expect the Bank of Canada to be the first G10 central bank to hold rates,” said Jay Zhao-Murray, a forex analyst at Monex Canada.

The majority of the 32 economists surveyed by Reuters last week said the Bank of Canada (BoC) would likely keep rates on hold through the end of this year, and all of them forecast the bank to stay on hold on Wednesday.

Money markets expect the policy rate to be left on hold on Wednesday but are pricing in another tightening by September.

While some data have been particularly strong since the bank’s last policy meeting, including a blockbuster January jobs report, gross domestic product stalled in the fourth quarter – far weaker than the 1.3% annualized growth forecast by the BoC.

“Look for the Bank of Canada to point to slowing GDP growth and inflation when justifying its decision to maintain the level of rates,” said Royce Mendes and Tiago Figueiredo, Desjardins economists, in a note.

“The central bank is unlikely to do much to endorse the view that further rate hikes will be necessary,” they said.

Macklem has left the door open to raising rates further, but he has also said that if inflation comes down as the bank has forecast, then higher borrowing costs will not be needed.

Macklem said in January inflation would slow to about 3% by mid-year, and then reach 2% in 2024. He also said he expects near-zero growth for the first three quarters of 2023.

Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will deliver a speech, titled “Economic Progress Report” and take questions from the media on Thursday in Winnipeg. There will be no speech or news conference on Wednesday after the rate decision.

Minutes from this week’s meeting are due to be published on March 22.

(Reporting by Steve Scherer, additional reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto; Editing by Nick Zieminski)