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Bitcoin – A Consolidation or Back in the Hands of the Bears

By:
Bob Mason
Published: Jul 16, 2018, 07:20 UTC

Bitcoin's looking to consolidate on Sunday's rally, though much will depend upon the news wires through the day, regulators and governments busy behind the scenes to bring the market into the mainstream on reg front.

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Bitcoin gained 1.56% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 0.49% rise, to end the week down 5.36% at $6,347.2, a first hold at $6,300 levels since Wednesday.

A start of the day intraday low $6,230.3 saw Bitcoin hold above the first major support level at $6,179.53 before a broad based market rally kicked in, taking Bitcoin through the day’s first major support level at $6,320.33 to test resistance at the second major resistance level at $6,390.57 with an intraday high $6,389.

While Bitcoin managed to hold on to $6,300 levels, failing to break through to $6,400 levels over the weekend leaves the Bitcoin well short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 going into the start of the week, which gives little hope of Bitcoin forming a bearish trend reversal to drive the broader market in the early part of the week.

There was no particularly negative news to pin back the majors through the weekend, though we can expect the indictment of 12 Russians accused of meddling in the 2016 Presidential Election campaign to grab some headlines through the week, the indictments and links to Bitcoin giving U.S regulators incentive to wade in on Bitcoin and the broader market in the week.

Time is running out for the G20 to roll out the much talked about unified set of rules and regulations for the cryptomarket, with uncertainty over what lies ahead likely to leave Bitcoin in a bear trap for now.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 0.22% to $6,361.3. A start of the day move through to $6,372.7 led to a pullback in the early hours to a morning low $6,327.1 that left the first major support level at $6,255.33 untested before recovering to $6,300 levels.

A morning high $6,377.7 also came up short of $6,400 levels, leaving the day’s first major resistance level at $6,414.03 untested through the early part of the morning.

For the day ahead, a move back through the morning high $6,377.7 would support a break through to $6,400 levels for the first time since Wednesday, to bring the first major resistance level at $6,414.03 into play.

Failure to move through to $6,400 levels later in the day could see Bitcoin pullback through the morning low $6,327.1 to sub-$6,300 levels to test the first major support level at $6,255.33 before any recovery to $6,300 levels.

With sentiment across the broader market having improved through the weekend and, with the majors in positive territory in the early hours, moving through to $6,400 levels by the day’s end will support another momentum build to bring the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 back into play in the week, though for now, with regulatory risk in play, we will expect Bitcoin to remain in the hands of the Bitcoin bears.

Elsewhere, Cardano’s ADA was amongst the front runners, up 1.33% at the time of writing, with only a handful of the crypto majors seeing red, EOS leading the way down with a 0.74% loss early on.

BTC/USD 16/07/18 4-Hourly Chart

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About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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