Bitcoin – The Bears Fight back to Drag Bitcoin to sub-$3,500

It’s back in the red and after a 6th consecutively monthly loss, can Bitcoin avoid sub-$3,000 levels?
Bob Mason

Bitcoin fell by 0.73% on Thursday, partially reversing a 1.48% rise from Wednesday, to end the day at $3,503.8.

For the month of January, Bitcoin fell by 8.58% and for the bears, the monthly loss was a 6th consecutive monthly in the red, with Bitcoin seeing monthly gains in just 3 of the last 13 months.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rally to an intraday high $3,574.8, breaking through the first major resistance level at $3,569.33 before hitting reverse.

Sliding through to the early evening, Bitcoin fell to an intraday low $3,482.1 before finding support to move back through to $3,500 levels by the day’s end. Bitcoin managed to steer clear of the first major support level at $3,470.53 in spite of the reversal, with sub-$3,500 support continuing to limit the damage.

Elsewhere amongst the top 10 cryptos, there were no buck-trending moves on the day, with Tron seeing the heaviest losses on Thursday, sliding by 7.44% to eat into January’s gains.

The negative sentiment even weighed on Ripple’s XRP that had bounced on Wednesday on news of SWIFT adopting R3’s platform for global payments on a trial basis.

For January, it wasn’t a great month for the majors. Stellar’s Lumen saw the heaviest losses, down by 26.64%. Bitcoin Cash SV and Bitcoin Cash ABC were close behind, the pair down by 25.21% and by 24.03% respectively.

Ethereum managed to hold onto $100 levels, but a 19% slide in the month will leave it on the defensive going into February.

Bucking the trend through the month were Litecoin, which gained 4.9% and Tron’s TRX, which trailblazed its way through January with a 33.3% rally. It could have been a lot more had it not been for Thursday’s sell-off.

On the news front, there was very little driving the cryptomarket through the day, with even the news of VanEck resubmitting its Bitcoin ETF application providing little support. The reason for withdrawing had been the U.S government shutdown, rather than any material issues with the application, so there was very little reason for the market to respond.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.73% to $3,478.2. A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin slide from a morning high $3,513.4 to a low $3,462.2. The pullback saw Bitcoin call on support at the first major support level at $3,465.67 before steadying, the morning high having come up well short of the first major resistance level at $3,558.37.

For the day ahead, a move back through the morning high $3,513.4 to $3,520 levels would support a run at the first major resistance level at 3,558.37. We can expect Bitcoin to continue to face plenty of resistance at $3,500 to pin Bitcoin back from a breakout to $3,600 levels on the day. For the bulls, a move back through to $3,500 would be needed and sentiment across the broader market will also need to shift to support a recovery.

Failure to move back through the morning high could see Bitcoin fall deeper into the red. A fall through the first major support level at $3,465.67 could see Bitcoin call on support at the second major support level at $3,427.53 before any recovery. We would expect Bitcoin to steer clear of sub-$3,400 levels on the day, barring a crypto meltdown event.

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