Brexit – The Last Call, or is it?

The Pound is on a rollercoaster ride. Where will it end up by the end of the day? Look out for resignation and talk of another referendum…
Bob Mason
Brexit Referendum UK

The Day of Jostles

Theresa May held an emergency cabinet meeting at Number 10 before heading to Parliament on Monday.

At the time of writing, Number 10 has refused to confirm nor deny whether a meaningful vote will take place. Deal or no deal. 2nd Referendum or leave without a deal.

Resignation or weather the storm?

At the time of writing, Cable was up 0.1% to $1.32173. After what’s been a choppy 52-weeks, the day has not been without its pitfalls.

The Pound hit a low $1.316 before bouncing back to $1.32 levels.

EU Readiness

News hit the wires of the EU completing its no-deal plans for Britain departing the EU. The EU may be ready to deal with the concept, but economically it could be an altogether different story…

We’ve heard the travel plans, plans for students and the rest. Threats of banning travel were clear threats in the final months of negotiations.

The UK Government failed to fall for the bait of talk of shut down of the channel tunnel and for EU flights to be banned from entering the UK. Almost ludicrous to even consider such an eventuality. Perhaps the EU would like to build a wall…

The Petition

The famous Brexit Petition that has been doing its rounds over the last week broke through the 5m barrier on Monday.

Why would the UK government listen to a minority protest over the British government’s desire to leave the EU at all costs?

More than 30m voted in the EU referendum back in 2016, making the voting turnout 72.2%.

According to figures released by UK parliament, the turnout for elections was traditionally high relative to other advanced economies.

The high turnouts ultimately dilute the effects of the current petition circulating. 5m votes against an in excess of 30m vote count just isn’t enough. More than 17.4m voted to leave the EU, with 16.14m voting to remain. 5m votes would certainly be enough if more than 3m had originally voted in favor of leaving.

There’s no way of knowing who are signing the petition and there’s no way of knowing whether any remainers would now opt to leave. The EU’s handling of the UK and even other EU member states could have riled voters enough to drive a greater wedge between those in favor of leaving and those looking to remain.

Those looking to remain within the EU will feel that democracy has failed to hear their voices. The only failing of democracy in the run-up to the EU Referendum was the political tug of war in Parliament. Scaremongering and more left voters bewildered on what a departure from the EU actually meant.

Even today the true ramifications are unknown. Once the dust settles, EU member states will likely expedite trade agreements with the UK. It would make perfect sense.

While we could explore the 28 member states and trade terms, looking at Germany is a reasonable one, particularly when considering the fact that the UK economy is the 2nd largest in the EU.

According to figures released by ONS.Gov.UK,

Total imports of goods from Germany stood at £67.985m in 2018. Exports to Germany amounted to £36.517m. It comes as no surprise that the largest imports of goods were cars, accounting for 13%. Road vehicles other than cars accounted for 35% of exports. That’s Germany’s bread and butter.

Theresa May could be on her way out, but the decision to be willing to go without a deal could be more of a calculated decision than a game of Russian roulette. If Germany makes the first move, more will undoubtedly follow, particularly continental Europe.

The Establishment may have the self-interest of preserving the EU but individual member states are required to preserve GDP per capita. Enough said…

What to look out for in the Day Ahead

Expect chaos…

Always expecting the worse prepares you from benefiting from the best of outcomes. For Britain and the EU, there’s no positive outcome.

UK politics has shown its Achilles Heel and the EU has just given anti-establishment voters another reason to go against the grain.

Spanish elections are first up. Will there be a shock?

Looking at the Pound against the Dollar over last 2-years, imagine a top 5 GDP following the UK out. Juncker certainly does not want the UK to prosper away from the EU… But it could…

Don't miss a thing!

Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Latest Articles

See All

Expand Your Knowledge

See All
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
The content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party's services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party's website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.
RISK DISCLAIMER
This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.
FOLLOW US