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Bob Mason

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It’s the first day back to Parliament for UK MPs and it’s likely to be quite a day for British politics and the Pound.

Over the summer break, Jeremy Corbyn and Pro-Remainers had been busy looking to generate the necessary support to oust Johnson from number 10.

On the first day back, the first order of business is reportedly a debate to block a no-deal Brexit.

Party lines continue to fade into obscurity as 3-party politics blends into 2. On one side, the Brexiteers and, on the other, the Pro-Remainers.

Not for the first time this year, Tory party rebels are planning to join forces with the Opposition Party to block a no-deal 31st October Brexit. This would extend the timeline to January of next year should no agreement be in place. This is assuming that there is no majority parliamentary vote in favor of a no-deal Brexit by 19th October.

It was announced on Monday that such an outcome would lead to a motion for a general election on 14th October.

The Tory rebels have also been warned that they will face the axe should they support today’s motion.

With the Labour Party at the ready and Tory Party rebels facing the axe, Johnson should have no issues in getting the two-thirds majority vote to call a general election.

While Parliament is likely to have a heated session, there’s also the Court of Session hearing in Scotland.


The Court of Session

A full hearing at Scotland’s Court of Session is due to take place later today. The judge will hear arguments from both sides and deliver a judgment on Wednesday.

Pro-Remainers are attempting to prevent Johnson from suspending Parliament from next week until the Queen’s Speech.

While the ruling is not expected today, a ruling is anticipated as early as tomorrow. Much will depend upon today’s session in Parliament, however.

Should the Pro-Remainers managed to prevent Johnson from dragging Britain out of the EU without a deal, it’s a general election and that should relieve the impact of a Parliamentary suspension.

Vote of no-Confidence

The chances of a vote of no confidence have diminished this week.

Should Johnson and the Brexiteers overcome any attempts to block a no-deal Brexit, the British PM should survive a vote of no confidence.

For the Pro-Remainers, a loss for the Brexiteers almost guarantees a snap general election.

Johnson’s willingness to call a general election suggests that there is support from elsewhere.

A possible coalition with Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is certainly a possibility should Johnson continue to stand his ground on Brexit, deal or no-deal.

The Pound

On the political front, today’s vote on legislation to block a no-deal Brexit is the main event for the Pound.

A loss for Boris Johnson, however, may not be enough to reverse the Pound’s early losses.

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party are waiting in the wings. A snap general election could deliver a Conservative – Brexit Party coalition. Such an outcome would raise the probability of a no-deal departure from the EU.

The Pound may well have more downside to come. The EU has shown little interest in renegotiating and British politics is in pieces.

As early as tomorrow, the Court of Session will also deliver its ruling. In question is whether it was lawful for Johnson to request the Queen to suspend Parliament.

The outcome of today’s session in Parliament will dictate the Pound’s sensitivity to tomorrow’s ruling…

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.21% to $1.20338.

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