Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Rebound from Fibonacci Support, but Outlook Remains Bearish

Crude Oil Finds Support but Weekly Loss Still Looms

Light crude oil futures are edging higher on Friday after holding key Fibonacci retracement support between $59.27 and $58.49. Thursday’s low at $58.83 marked a successful test of that zone.

However, the rally remains fragile as prices face strong resistance at the 50-day moving average at $61.15 and the 200-day moving average at $61.71. A sustained move above those levels would signal bullish intent, with the long-term pivot at $63.74 in focus.

On the downside, a break below $58.49 risks accelerating losses toward $55.96.

At 11:18 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $60.02, up $0.59 or +0.99%.

WTI and Brent Head for Second Straight Weekly Decline

Despite Friday’s modest bounce, both WTI and Brent are on track for weekly losses exceeding 1.5%, pressured by oversupply concerns and softening U.S. demand. Three consecutive down sessions earlier in the week set the tone, driven by bearish inventory data and rising global production.

U.S. Crude Stockpile Surge Deepens Oversupply Fears

A surprise U.S. inventory build of 5.2 million barrels rattled markets midweek, as reported by the Energy Information Administration. The increase stemmed from higher imports and reduced refining activity. Gasoline and distillate inventories fell, but that was not enough to offset the bearish tone. Analysts note that risk-off sentiment, a stronger U.S. dollar, and uncertainty linked to the ongoing government shutdown are compounding downside pressure.

OPEC+ Eases Output Curbs While Saudi Arabia Cuts Prices

OPEC and its allies agreed to a slight output increase for December while halting any additional hikes for Q1. That cautious stance reflects concerns over a supply glut, but the modest rise still reinforces expectations of a well-supplied market. Saudi Arabia, the world’s top exporter, also announced deep discounts for December crude bound for Asia, signaling pressure to maintain market share.

China’s Demand Rises, but Russian Sanctions Add Friction

Chinese crude imports climbed 2.3% in October from the previous month and rose 8.2% year-over-year, supported by elevated refinery runs. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remain in play. Gunvor withdrew its bid for Lukoil’s foreign assets after U.S. Treasury opposition, suggesting continued U.S. efforts to tighten enforcement on Russian oil firms like Lukoil and Rosneft.

Oil Prices Forecast: Bearish as Supply Concerns Dominate

Supply-side pressure, sluggish U.S. demand, and unresolved macro uncertainty are capping upside for crude. Unless bulls can reclaim the 200-day moving average, rallies are likely to be short-lived. Near-term oil prices forecast: bearish.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.