Economic Data Delivers Mixed Results for the EUR Ahead of U.S Stats and FED Chair Powell Testimony

It was yet another busy economic calendar this morning. German retail sales were in focus along with member state and Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs for November.

German Retail Sales

In October, retail sales fell by 0.3% following a 2.5% slide from September. Economists had forecast a 1.0% increase.

According to Destatis,

• Compared with the pre-crisis month of Feb-2020, however, retail turnover was up 3.5%.
• Year-on-year, however, turnover was down 2.9%, with consumption weighed by delivery bottlenecks in retail trade.

Member State Manufacturing PMIs

Spain’s Manufacturing PMI slipped from 57.4 to 57.1 in November, versus a forecasted rise to 57.9.

In November, Italy’s Manufacturing PMI rose from 61.1 to 62.8 Economists had forecast for the PMI to hold steady at 61.1.

According to finalized figures:

France’s Manufacturing PMI rose from 53.6 to 55.9 which was up from a prelim 54.6.

In November, Germany’s Manufacturing PMI fell from 57.8 to 57.4, which was down from a prelim 57.6.

The Eurozone

According to finalized figures, the Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI rose from 58.3 to 58.4 in November, which was down from prelim 58.6.

According to the November survey,

• Manufacturing sector growth stabilized following a 4-month slowdown in growth from June’s record expansion.
• Severe supply-related constraints continued to hinder sector activity.
• Consumer goods producers recorded an accelerated expansion, while intermediate and investment goods makers saw growth slow further.
• While at a slower pace, new business continued to rise at a solid clip.
• Average lead times lengthened once more, however.
• Costs rose at the third strongest pace in the series history.
• Output prices, as a result, were raised to the greatest extent since the series began in Nov-2002.

By Country,

• Italy topped the table, with a record PMI high of 62.8 followed by the Netherlands (9-month low 60.7%).
• France sat at the bottom of the table with a 3-month high 55.9.
• While avoiding the bottom, German and Austria saw their respective PMIs fall to 10-month lows, with Spain’s declining to an 8-month low.

Market Impact

Ahead of today’s stats, the EUR had fallen to a pre-stat low $1.13165 before rising to a pre-stat and current day high $1.13599.

In response today’s stats, the EUR rose to a post-Spain PMI release high $1.13412 before sliding to a post-stat and current day low $1.13027.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.17% to $1.13192.

Next Up

ADP nonfarm employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI figures and day-2 of FED Chair Powell testimony.

On the monetary policy front, ECB Member Panetta is also scheduled to speak following November’s inflation figures released on Tuesday.