EUR/USD Gives Up Early Gains on Private Sector PMI Numbers

It was a busy morning for the EUR/USD. November Prelim private sector PMI numbers for France, Germany, and the Eurozone were in focus.

Member States

In November, France’s manufacturing PMI rose from 47.2 to a 3-month high of 49.1, while the services PMI fell from 51.7 to a 20-month low of 49.4. Economists had forecast PMIs of 47.0 and 50.6, respectively.

Germany’s manufacturing PMI increased from 45.1 to a 2-month high of 46.7, while the services PMI slipped from 46.5 to a 2-month low of 46.4. Economists had forecast PMIs of 45.0 and 46.2, respectively.

The Eurozone

According to prelim figures, the Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI rose from 46.4 to a 2-month high of 47.3, with the services PMI holding steady at 48.6. Economists had forecast PMIs of 46.0 and 48.0, respectively.

As a result, the Composite PMI increased from 47.3 to a 2-month high of 47.8 versus a forecasted 47.0.

According to the November prelim survey,

• Business activity fell for a fifth consecutive month, with the rate of decline the second strongest since 2013.
• Excluding the COVID-19 lockdown months, the rate of decline of new business slowed, with firms reporting fewer supply constraints.
• While new orders fell at a more moderate pace, the fall in new orders was the second-largest recorded in the last 24 months.
• Despite the doom and gloom, there was also a pickup in business confidence about the year ahead.
• As a result of improving supply chain conditions and weaker demand, price pressure eased, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
• Within the euro area, Germany recorded the steepest contraction, with a composite PMI of 46.4. While the rate of decline was the softest since August, it was the third largest since 2009 (excluding COVID-19 lockdowns).
• The French private sector contracted for the first time since February 2021, with the Composite PMI falling from 50.2 to 48.8.

EUR/USD Price Impact

Ahead of today’s stats, the EUR/USD rose to a current-day high of $1.03488.

In response to today’s stats, the EUR/USD slid to a post-stat low of $1.03021 before finding support.

At the time of writing, the EUR/USD was up by 0.08% to $1.03107.

Up Next

US prelim November private sector PMIs, consumer sentiment, jobless claims, and core durable goods will be in focus. Barring a spike in jobless claims, expect the services PMI and consumer sentiment to have the most impact on the dollar.

Late in the session, the FOMC meeting minutes will also draw attention.