French Industrial Production Rebounds in April

It is a quiet day on the European economic calendar. As the dust settles from a hectic Thursday session, investor focus returned to the French economy.

Following finalized manufacturing PMI numbers on Thursday, French industrial production was in focus this morning.

Industrial production increased by 0.8% in April versus a forecasted 0.3% rise. In March, industrial production slid by 1.1%.

According to insee.fr,

• Output across the manufacturing sector increased by 0.7% after a 1.1% decline in March.
• There were output recoveries in mining & quarrying, energy, and water supply, rising by 1.8%.
• The manufacture of transport equipment increased by 2.0%, with other transport equipment up by 4.7%.
• Machinery and equipment goods manufacturing increased by 1.4%, with other manufacturing industries reporting an increase of 0.3%.
• Coke and refined petroleum manufacturing surged 23.6%, partially reversing a 45.2% slump from March. Refinery strikes were less severe in April, supporting the rebound.
• However, motor vehicle, trailer, and semi-trailer manufacturing fell by 1.8%.
• There was also a fall in the manufacture of food products and beverages (-0.3%).

While production increased in April, the manufacturing PMI survey for May painted a gloomier picture despite rising from 45.6 to 45.7.

According to the survey, output volumes declined for the twelfth consecutive month on inflationary pressures weighing on demand. Overseas demand fell at the most marked pace on record, with firms highlighting weaker US sales.

EUR/USD Reaction to French Industrial Production

Before the production numbers, the EUR/USD fell to an early low of $1.07564 before rising to a pre-stat high of $1.07790.

However, in response to the numbers, the EUR/USD fell from $1.07727 to a post-stat low of $1.07674.

This morning, the EUR/USD was up 0.05% to $1.07675.

Next Up

With the European economic calendar on the light side, investors should monitor ECB chatter throughout the day. However, no ECB members are on the calendar to speak today, leaving commentary with the media to move the dial.

Looking ahead to the US session, the US Job Report will be in the spotlight. While the markets are betting on the Fed to hit pause in June, a more marked pickup in wage growth and a solid increase in nonfarm payrolls could test the theory.

Bets on a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike tumbled from 66.6% to 26.4% on Wednesday in response to Fed talk of favoring a June pause.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a 25-basis point interest rate hike fell from 26.4% to 20.4% on Thursday as investors responded to inflation and labor cost numbers.

However, FOMC member chatter and reaction to the Senate vote passing the Debt Limit Suspension Bill will also influence later today.