Inflation Data Puts the EUR and the Dollar in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was another relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action this morning, with trade data from China also in focus.

For the Aussie Dollar

In June, the NAB Business Confidence Index fell by 9 points to +11 points. Economists had forecast a more modest decline to 19. The index had fallen by 3 points to +20 index points in May.

NAB Business Confidence: According to the June Survey,

• Rising new COVID-19 cases in NSW and subsequent lockdowns in NSW and other states weighed on business sentiment.
• Business conditions also took a hit, falling from +36 to +24 in June.

Looking at the sub-components:

• The profitability sub-index fell from +39 to +25, with the employment sub-index falling from +25 to +17.
• Exports also declined, falling from +1 to -1 in June.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.74858 to $0.74885 upon release of the figures, which preceded trade data from China. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.33% to $0.7501.

Out of China

Trade data drew plenty of interest this morning following last week’s jitters over the sustainability of the global economic recovery.

In June, China’s USD trade surplus widened from $45.54bn to $51.53bn,

• Imports rose by 36.7%, year-on-year, versus a forecasted increase of 32%. In May, imports had surged by 51.1%.
• Exports increased by 32.2%, year-on-year, versus a forecasted 24% increase. In May, exports had risen by 27.9%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.75003 to $0.75016 upon release of the figures.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.02% to ¥110.350 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.34% to $0.7005.

The Day Ahead

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic data front. Finalized June inflation figures for France and Germany are due out later this morning.

Barring a marked upward revision, however, the numbers will likely have a muted impact on the EUR.

Following the ECB’s revision to its price stability objective, softer inflationary pressure would further delay any moves by the ECB on the monetary policy front.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news updates will also need monitoring.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.08% to $1.1870.

For the Pound

It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment in the day, with COVID-19 a main area of focus once more. Government plans to fully reopen the UK economy should deliver Pound support.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.14% to $1.3903.

Across the Pond

Inflation figures for June are due out later in the day. A further pickup in inflationary pressure would question the FED’s view on inflation and the uptick being transitory.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 92.403.

For the Loonie

It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic data front. There are no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction.

With the BoC in action tomorrow, the markets will likely consider the continued spread of the Delta strain and impact on certain key economies and demand for crude.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.06% to C$1.2446 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.