Bitcoin’s “Dry Powder” Ratio Returns to Levels Seen Before Past Bull Runs

Bitcoin (BTC) may be quietly preparing for its next major move as a key liquidity metric—the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR)—returns to levels historically associated with market bottoms and accumulation phases.

Bitcoin is Mirroring Pre-Bull Run Phases of 2021, 2022

The SSR measures Bitcoin’s market cap relative to the total market value of stablecoins like USDT and USDC.

A lower SSR means stablecoin reserves are high compared to Bitcoin’s size, or simply, there’s plenty of “dry powder” waiting to enter the market.

According to CryptoQuant data, the SSR has returned to around 13, a range that previously coincided with Bitcoin’s rebound phases in mid-2021, late-2022, and 2024. Each time, a flood of stablecoin liquidity preceded multimonth BTC rallies.

Binance Data Confirms the Setup

On Binance, Bitcoin reserves have been shrinking while stablecoin balances keep climbing.

This divergence has historically appeared near cyclical lows, signaling that patient buyers are preparing for accumulation. As stablecoin supply builds, the market often transitions from selling exhaustion to renewed demand.

“From a risk/reward perspective, these moments tend to offer asymmetric opportunities: downside appears limited, while upside expands as liquidity rotates back into BTC,” wrote CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV, adding:

“It’s a phase that doesn’t feel exciting, but historically, it’s where strong hands start building positions. Yet this zone also acts as a final line of defense.”

Bitcoin Eyes $150,000 if This Fractal Repeats

Technically, Bitcoin remains in a strong structural uptrend despite recent consolidation. The BTC/USD weekly chart shows the price holding firmly above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), from which it has sharply rebounded.

This area also aligns with a major resistance-turned-support (S/R flip) zone that has acted as the market’s backbone since early 2023; every touch so far has confirmed bullish continuation.

If this pattern continues, Bitcoin could be preparing for a new leg higher. The first target lies near its record high around $125,000, followed by the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level around $150,000, which represents the next major upside zone.

In previous cycles, similar S/R flips at the 50-week EMA have marked the midpoint between reaccumulation and parabolic advances, suggesting the current rebound could be the start of Bitcoin’s next expansion phase.