Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Nvidia Gains Despite Export Curbs, Salesforce Boosts Revenue View

Strong Q1 Growth, But Export Restrictions Pressure Future Revenue

Nvidia (NVDA) delivered a strong fiscal first-quarter report, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.96 beating the $0.93 estimate, and revenue coming in at $44.06 billion, above the $43.31 billion consensus. A 73% year-over-year increase in data center sales — which reached $39.1 billion — underpinned the beat, as demand for Nvidia’s AI chips remains resilient among major cloud providers.

The company expects second-quarter revenue of $45 billion, slightly below analyst expectations of $45.9 billion. Nvidia attributed the shortfall to newly imposed U.S. export restrictions targeting its China-bound H20 AI chips — the only advanced processors it could legally ship to the country. The impact of the restrictions cut potential sales by approximately $8 billion, with a $5.5 billion charge tied to unsellable inventory.

CEO Jensen Huang previously projected a $15 billion revenue hit tied to U.S.-China trade policies, reflecting mounting pressure on Nvidia’s access to one of its largest foreign markets. Still, core demand for AI infrastructure remains strong in the U.S. and other international markets.

While Nvidia’s stock rose 3% in extended trading, it has underperformed broader semiconductor peers this year following last year’s rally. With Wall Street increasingly scrutinizing supply chain exposure and geopolitical risk, Nvidia’s near-term upside may depend more on Western enterprise and hyperscaler demand than on full global reach.

Market Forecast: Cautiously Bullish on U.S. Demand Strength

Nvidia’s short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, supported by robust AI infrastructure demand from U.S. tech majors. However, continued trade restrictions introduce downside risk, particularly if export policies tighten further. Traders should monitor license developments and hyperscaler capex commitments for directional cues.

Salesforce Raises Guidance as Enterprise AI Spending and Agentforce Monetization Gain Momentum

Salesforce (CRM) raised its full-year revenue forecast for fiscal 2026, now expecting $41.0–$41.3 billion versus a previous range of $40.5–$40.9 billion. The update follows a better-than-expected Q1 print, with revenue of $9.83 billion topping the $9.75 billion estimate. Shares rose over 4% in after-hours trading on the improved outlook.

Enterprise demand for cloud services remains stable despite global economic concerns, supporting Salesforce’s strategy to monetize its AI offerings, particularly through its new agent-based platform, Agentforce. The company is positioning this platform as a core driver of software expansion, leaning into agentic AI to automate workflows and boost client engagement across its ecosystem.

Salesforce’s improved guidance suggests confidence in its ability to capture a larger share of enterprise AI budgets, particularly as customers accelerate digital transformation initiatives. Management highlighted AI as a key pillar of future growth, aligning Salesforce more directly with broader enterprise AI trends also benefiting peers like Microsoft and Oracle.

Market Forecast: Bullish on AI Monetization and Enterprise Stability

Salesforce’s revised guidance and strong Q1 execution support a bullish near-term outlook. Continued AI adoption and resilient enterprise IT spending provide a favorable backdrop. Traders should watch for progress on Agentforce adoption and signs of sustained revenue acceleration in future quarters.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.