Nonfarm Payrolls to Put the Dollar in Focus as COVID-19 Angst Eases

Earlier in the Day:

It was a quieter start to the day on the economic calendar on Thursday. The Aussie Dollar was in action early in the day.

Away from the economic calendar, the markets responded to the positive news of progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine. The news comes as the latest COVID-19 numbers revealed yet another spike on Wednesday.

Positive economic data from the EU and the U.S from Wednesday also supported riskier assets early on. The stats continued to support a speedier economic recovery.

Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers

On Wednesday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 210,499 to 10,794,377. On Tuesday, the number of new cases had risen by 201,507. The daily increase was higher than Tuesday’s rise and up from 174,860 new cases from the previous Wednesday.

Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 1,062 new cases on Wednesday, which was up from 934 new cases on Tuesday. On the previous Wednesday, 1,463 new cases had been reported.

From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 51,607 to 2,779,460 on Wednesday. On Tuesday, the total number of cases had risen by 53,471. On Wednesday, 24^th June, a total of 38,253 new cases had been reported.

For the Aussie Dollar

Australia’s trade surplus narrowed from A$8.8bn to A$8.025bn in May.

According to the ABS,

• Goods and services credit fell by A$1,604m (4%) to A$35,742m.
  • Non-rural goods fell A$1,080m (4%), rural goods fell A$404m (10%), and non-monetary gold fell A$219m (12%).
  • Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady a A$45m, with services credits rising A$99m (2%).
• Goods and services debits fell A$1,799m (6%) to A$27,717m.
  • Consumption goods fell A$1,2333m (14%), intermediate and other merchandise goods fell A$821m (8%), and capital goods fell A$412m (7%).
  • Non-monetary gold imports rose by A$710m (113%), while services debits fell $43m (1%).

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.69245 to $0.69242 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was flat at $0.6915.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.05% to ¥107.52 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.19% at $0.6489.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. The Eurozone’s unemployment rate for May is due out.

We would expect the figures to have a muted impact on the majors, however, barring particularly dire numbers. Economists have forecast a rise to 7.7%, so anything above 8% would weigh on the EUR…

Outside of the stats, expect market risk sentiment towards COVID-19 and the economic outlook to remain in focus. Nonfarm payroll figures from the U.S today will have a material influence on risk sentiment across the markets.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.07% to $1.1259.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK, which leaves the Pound firmly in the hands of Brexit and market risk sentiment.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.06% to $1.2482.

Across the Pond

It’s another busy day on the U.S economic calendar. Key stats include June’s nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate and the weekly jobless claims.

Trade data and May factory orders for May should have a muted impact on the majors on the day.

Away from the calendar, there could be some chatter from the Oval Office in response to the June stats…

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.07% to 97.124.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the calendar. Trade figures for May are due out later today. We will expect some influence, as the markets look for signs of an improving trade environment.

Away from the calendar, expect crude oil prices to provide direction later in the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.10% to C$1.3600 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.