Supply & Demand Fundamentals Keep Oil Prices Flat

Crude oil barely held the $45 price level on Thursday while Brent oil tumbled to 47.95. The spread is one again lower than $3. In the United States, a closely-watched report seen as a gauge for oil demand in the world’s biggest economy showed that commercial crude inventories rose by four million barrels to 457.9 million barrels by Sept. 25.

That was about 28 percent higher than a year ago, keeping inventories at a level not seen in at least 80 years for this time of year, said the U.S. Department of Energy report. But the report also showed U.S. crude production falling by 40,000 barrels per day to 9.096 million barrels per day (bpd), which is positive news for the oversupplied global market.

Meanwhile, output from the OPEC group of oil exporters stood at 32 million bpd in September, down from previous month but still above its quota, Bloomberg News said.

US National Hurricane Center said that hurricane Joaquin, which is set to reach the eastern US coast this weekend, is expected to become a major storm.

The storm reached category 3 status late Wednesday and is expected to strengthen into a category 4 storm today. Oil prices erased a surge of gains Thursday as weather models show Hurricane Joaquin less likely to affect the East Coast.

Gasoline and diesel futures and physical spot prices had all surged when traders feared the hurricane might disrupt East Coast refineries. Product and spot prices are having a strong influence across oil futures Thursday, brokers and analysts said. And model updates late in the morning and around noon are showing a growing possibility the storm will hit only a small part of the East Coast and maybe none of it at all, according to MDA Information Systems LLC.

The storm isn’t moving north quickly enough to get absorbed into a front that would pull it over land in a southern spot like the Carolinas, said Brad Harvey, lead forecaster, MDA Information Systems LLC. It is likely to still cause a lot of rain in the region, but not the most severe impacts of a hurricane, he said.

“It’s increasingly less likely now that we see an East Coast impact,” he added. “The storm is going to struggle.”

Due to the beginning of China’s eight-day National Holiday, liquidity in Asian trading hours could be limited, impacting prices.

Preliminary official data revealed that September crude imports in South Korea fell 0.8% from a year earlier to 76.1 million barrels.

An official survey showed that Chinese manufacturing activity contracted for a second straight month in September. Manufacturers’ confidence in Japan is believed to have worsened in the three months to September, according to a central bank survey.