The COVID-19 Stimulus Package and Manufacturing PMIs Put the Dollar and EUR in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning.  The Japanese Yen and the Aussie Dollar were in action, with economic data from China also in focus.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 and the U.S stimulus package continued to be an area of focus.

Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers

According to figures at the time of writing, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 249,532 to 18,231,469 on Sunday. On Saturday, the number of new cases had risen by 250,087. The daily increase was lower than Saturday’s rise while up from 213,347 new cases from the previous Sunday.

Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 623 new cases on Sunday, which was down from 707 new cases on Saturday. On the previous Saturday, 663 new cases had been reported.

From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 50,702 to 4,813,647 on Sunday. On Saturday, the total number of cases had increased by 60,171. On Sunday, 26^th July, a total of 56,130 new cases had been reported.

For the Japanese Yen

Finalized GDP numbers for the 1^st quarter remained unchanged from 2^nd estimates. In the 1^st quarter, the Japanese economy contracted by 0.6%, following a 1.9% contraction in the 4^th quarter.

On an annualized basis, the economy contracted by 2.2%, which was also in line with 2^nd estimates. In the 4^th quarter, the economy had contracted by 7.3%.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥105.858 to ¥105.844 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.07% to ¥105.90 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Aussie Dollar

The AIG Manufacturing Index rose from 51.5 to 53.5 in July.

According to the July Survey,

• The sector expanded for a 2^nd consecutive month, a first since October of last year.
• The food & beverage and machinery & equipment sectors delivered much-needed support in the month.
• In spite of the expansion, there was continued weakness across the other sectors.
• Production, employment, supplier deliveries, and finished stocks expanded at a faster rate than in June, however.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71412 to $0.71423 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.14% to $0.7133.

Out of China

In July, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.2 to 52.8. Economists had forecast a rise to 51.3.

According to the July survey,

• New business from overseas fell at the slowest rate in 6-months, as new orders rose at the quickest pace since Jan-11.
• Companies also reported the quickest expansion in output since January 2011.
• Output expanded for a 5^th consecutive month, driven by greater client demand as the economic recovery gathered pace.
• Manufacturers ramped up their buying activity, the rate of expansion the most marked in seven-and-a-half years.
• In spite of a rise in backlogs and new orders, firms cut staffing levels again in July.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71303 to $0.71366 upon release of the figures.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.02% to $0.6630.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include July manufacturing PMI figures for Spain and Italy.

Finalized manufacturing PMIs are also due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

Barring a marked revision to Germany’s numbers, we would expect Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to have the greatest impact.

Following some quite dire 2^nd quarter GDP numbers last week, a further pickup in manufacturing sector activity would be welcome.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.07% to $1.1770.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. July’s finalized manufacturing PMI is due out later this morning.

Barring any revisions, however, the PMI should have a muted impact on the Pound.

Chatter on Brexit and market risk sentiment will influence, as will updates on the latest COVID-19 outbreak.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.02% to $1.3088.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. July’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and finalized Markit Manufacturing PMI figures are due out.

Expect the ISM figures to have the greatest impact on the day. The employment and new orders sub-indexes will likely garner plenty of interest.

Away from the calendar, the focus will remain on Capitol Hill and the progress of the COVID-19 stimulus package.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.16% to 93.499.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and the PMI numbers on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.03% to C$1.3408 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.