The Price of Belief: Octa Broker Gets Philosophical on Bitcoin’s True Value

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Updated: Oct 13, 2025, 13:36 GMT+00:00

Octa broker delves into a philosophical debate to determine not just which scenario is more likely, but whether Bitcoin is currently overvalued, and if it possesses any intrinsic value at all.

The past week was a tale of two extremes for Bitcoin (BTCUSD). Initially, it soared to a new all-time high (ATH) above $126,000 (according to Coinbase data) as U.S. government shutdown drove investors to seek refuge in alternative assets over the beleaguered dollar. However, this momentum quickly reversed by Friday, when Bitcoin slumped by over 7% after U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of substantial new tariffs on Chinese exports triggered a sharp, broad-market risk-off sentiment and increased global economic uncertainty. While Bitcoin’s underlying bullish momentum remains intact—underscored by its swift recovery on Sunday—the past week’s dramatic volatility leads some to question its legitimacy as a meaningful store of value.

Indeed, as the world’s most iconic cryptocurrency continues its relentless ascent—with total returns of over 30% in 2025 alone—traders are pondering whether the recent rally is merely a speculative frenzy signaling an imminent correction, or is it yet another stepping stone to even greater heights in the coming weeks and months. Octa broker delves into a philosophical debate to determine not just which scenario is more likely, but whether Bitcoin is currently overvalued, and if it possesses any intrinsic value at all.

Does Bitcoin Have Any Value?

The core objection to Bitcoin’s current valuation stems from its perceived lack of intrinsic value. Financial traditionalists argue that, unlike conventional investments—a company with tangible assets, revenue, and profits, or an interest-bearing government bond—Bitcoin generates no cash flow. Indeed, the very definition of an asset assumes that it is expected to generate future economic benefits for its owner, such as interest, dividends, or productive use. In the case of Bitcoin, however, this economic benefit is not generated internally but is realised only when it is sold at a higher price to someone else. This dynamic relies solely on the expectation of ever-increasing demand and is a textbook example of the Greater Fool Theory of investment.

The Greater Fool Theory describes a speculative bubble where an asset’s value rises simply due to the hope that its next buyer (the greater fool) will be willing to pay an even higher price. While hope itself is not a bad thing, prudent financial decisions must be based on tangible metrics and expected returns and not rely merely on the optimistic assumptions of escalating demand. Famed economist and Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama has publicly argued that Bitcoin is fundamentally flawed and has a near-certain chance of becoming worthless within a decade, citing its extreme volatility and violation of basic monetary principles.^{^[1]}

Indeed, Bitcoin only partially fulfills the three key roles or three main functions of money: medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account.

Medium of Exchange

Originally envisioned in Satoshi Nakamoto’s whitepaper as a ‘Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System’, Bitcoin promised revolutionary utility: censorship-resistant transactions enabling direct exchanges between parties without intermediaries like banks. This framework can be invaluable in regions plagued by financial instability or authoritarian controls.^{^[2]} It was also supposed to facilitate seamless, borderless transfers operating around the clock, potentially slashing costs and delays for global remittances compared to traditional banking systems.

However, reality paints a different picture. Reports show that a majority of Bitcoin in circulation has not moved in at least a year, suggesting that the asset is predominantly being held rather than spent. According to MacroMicro, over 60% of Bitcoin in circulation has remained dormant for at least a year,^{^[3]} with more than half (54%) untouched for over two years.^{^[4]} In other words, Bitcoin is not being utilised according to the core principles of its original design. Institutional adoption via Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) underscores this trend, with public entities now holding over 1 million BTC—valued at roughly $110 billion and representing about 5% of the circulating supply—further entrenching Bitcoin as a hoarded reserve rather than a transactional tool.^{^[5]}

Store of value

This is the function Bitcoin is most widely recognized for, earning it the nickname ‘digital gold’. Crypto enthusiasts claim that bitcoin represents a superior, ‘unconfiscatable’ store of value destined to challenge the entire market capitalisation of gold. Their argument rests on bitcoin’s built-in scarcity. The supply is fixed at a hard cap of 21 million coins, enforced by the periodic, pre-programmed supply shocks known as ‘halving’ events that slash the rate of new coins being minted every four years.

This structure makes Bitcoin a solid shield against the endless money printing like quantitative easing (QE) from central banks worldwide. Furthermore, the network’s reliability stems from its Proof-of-Work (PoW) setup, which ties security directly to real-world energy costs, making it robust and difficult to corrupt.

There are two problems here. First, the PoW consensus mechanism requires immense energy consumption. This raises serious concerns about Bitcoin’s environmental footprint. If Bitcoin were a publicly traded entity, its operational energy intensity would undoubtedly result in a very poor Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) rating and make it fail any test for carbon neutrality. Furthermore, the constant need for specialised mining hardware (ASICs) generates a steady stream of electronic waste (e-waste), adding another layer to its environmental cost.

Second, it is not entirely clear how a man-made, code-enforced limit can be considered true scarcity in the same league as a physical element like gold. Bitcoin’s limitation is a design choice, not an innate property, it is a programmed decision, not a built-in trait. Given that other cryptocurrencies can easily be created—some with improved technology and less environmental footprint— the arbitrary cap of Bitcoin’s supply does not prevent a potential fragmentation of demand across multiple digital assets. This undermines any guarantee that Bitcoin will hold its value purely because its rules say the supply is fixed.

Unit of Account

For an asset to be a unit of account, prices must be commonly quoted in that asset. However, nearly all goods and services that accept Bitcoin for payment still quote the price in a fiat currency.^{^[6]} Because the BTC price changes by the minute, one would need to constantly update prices if they are quoted purely in Bitcoin. This extreme instability prevents it from becoming a common, stable unit of measure.

Technical Analysis: Overbought or Just Momentum?

Whether Bitcoin has any value or is worthless, and whether it is a functional asset or a mere speculative bubble, is debatable. After all, the value is ultimately subjective and can be derived from a collective agreement rather than physical utility. Moreover, in today’s world, where trust in traditional institutions is eroding, the public interest in digital innovation could become the primary engine of adoption. Indeed, collective belief can become more powerful than any tangible backing, fueling massive speculative momentum that becomes self-fulfilling, blurring the line between utility and collective delusion.

What is not debatable, however, is that Bitcoin is in a decisive uptrend. Data shows that Bitcoin Open Interest (OI)—the number of active futures and options contracts—has climbed to record highs, recently hitting $46.3 billion.^{^[7]} This combined increase in both price and OI suggests that traders are optimistic and that the upward momentum is strong. Furthermore, the recent price surge has been significantly fueled by institutional adoption. The approvals of several spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) substantially broadened the investor base and allowed for easier shifts between Bitcoin and other traditional assets.

Interestingly, despite the massive rally, the asset is showing signs of maturation. Research suggests that Bitcoin’s overall volatility is decreasing as the asset class matures and its market cap grows.^{^[8]} Historically, a reduction in volatility has often been a precursor to future upward price movements.

For CFD traders at Octa broker, the practical reality is that the asset is currently experiencing robust, historically significant upward momentum driven by unprecedented institutional flows (through DATs and ETFs) and supportive macro conditions (like Federal Reserve rate cuts). Whether you view Bitcoin as digital gold or a speculative bubble, its performance remains inextricably linked to shifting beliefs about its future price, demanding careful risk management.

Technically, BTCUSD remains above key moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has left the overbought territory on a daily chart (see below). Although the currency does not look stretched, it is still expected to enter a period of consolidation (which normally follows after a significant upward move) rather than immediately making new all-time highs. The consolidation phase is likely to involve a pullback, with the price potentially retracing to the $115,000 level. A more substantial correction into the $112,000–100,000 zone is also possible, which is considered a strong area of buying interest (demand). Only a decisive drop and a daily close below the $100,000 mark would invalidate the underlying bullish trend and signal the beginning of a short-term bearish phase. In essence, a healthy pause/dip is expected before the rally can continue, and the key long-term support to hold is the psychological $100,000 level.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Daily Technical Chart

Source: TradingView, Octa Broker

Disclaimer: This article does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Octa does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences.

Octa is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 61 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.

The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities.

Since its foundation, Octa has won more than 100 awards, including the ‘Most Reliable Broker Global 2024’ award from Global Forex Awards and the ‘Best Mobile Trading Platform 2024’ award from Global Brand Magazine.

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