The Spanish General Election – The Socialist Worker’s Party Take VictoryThe PSOE win the general election and will need to form a coalition government after falling short of a majority.
According to provisional vote counts, the Socialist Worker’s party (“SPOE”) won Sunday’s general election with an estimated 28.7% of the vote.
The victory was largely in line with the polls going into Sunday’s election, where El Pais had the socialist PSOE party with 28.8% of the vote.
In spite of the victory, there was no majority, requiring the PSOE to form a coalition government in order to remain in power.
The PSOE’s previous coalition partner the Podemos won an estimated 14.3%, which was better than the El Pais poll of 13.2%.
With the PSOE expected to reunite with the Podemos, they would total 165 seats in parliament, short of a required 176 for a majority.
Expectations are that the PSOE will make up the 11 through the smaller parties, excluding the Catalan parties that forced the latest general election.
The largely expected outcome left the focus on the ousted People’s Party, who had their worst election result in history. Polls had pointed to a 75 seat representation. Initial results suggest that the PP won just 65 seats. That’s quite a slide from a previous 137 seats and reflected voter sentiment towards corruption…
With just 65 seats, the PP has been left without any chance of being able to form a coalition government.
Looking across to the smaller parties, the Vox won 10.3% of the vote. The share of the vote fell short of 12.5% from the last El Pais poll. Citizens came in just behind the PP, with 15.9%, up from 14.1% in the last poll.
While it will be the first time since Franco that the far right has representation, the number of seats fell well short of an expected 40 plus seats.
It remains to be seen which way the PSOE will go in forming a coalition. Expectations are for the PSOE to form a leftwing coalition. There is, however, the possibility of a shift to the center-right.
The Podemos, however, appeared confident that they would be back in government…
For the Catalan Nationalists, the decision to force an election may have backfired. While having a presence in parliament, their presence will now lack any influence. The PSOE has made it clear that they would not be turning to the Catalan parties to form a majority.
The latest results could ultimately leave the entire Catalan debate off the table. That’s quite a setback for ERC leader Junqueras and any immediate hope of independence.
In the coming days, the official counting of votes will need to be concluded by 4th May. By that time, the PSOE could have finalized talks with the Podemos to form a coalition government.
It’s unlikely that talks will drag out or that another general election will need to be called.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down 0.02% at $1.1149, showing little reaction to the outcome.