The Week Ahead – Economic Data, the FED, and COVID-19 News in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar, with 58 stats in focus in the week ending 30^th April. In the week prior, 46 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

Durable goods and core durable goods orders along with consumer confidence figures are due out early in the week.

Expect core durable goods and the consumer confidence index figures to have the greatest influence.

On Thursday, the focus will shift to 1^st quarter GDP and jobless claims figures.

While the jobless claims figures will influence, expect the GDP numbers to be key on the day.

At the end of the week, personal spending and the FED’s preferred Core PCE Price index figures will be in focus.

On the monetary policy front, the FED is also in action on Wednesday. With the markets expecting the FED to stand pat on policy, the rate statement will be the main area of focus.

In the week, the Dollar ended the week down by 0.76% to 90.859.

For the EUR:

It’s also a busy the week on the economic data front.

German business sentiment and consumer confidence figures get things going.

Expect both sets of numbers to influence on Monday and Wednesday.

On Thursday, the German economy is back in focus, with unemployment figures due out.

With concerns over the German economic outlook lingering, expect any jump in unemployment to test the EUR.

At the end of the week, 1^st quarter GDP figures for the Eurozone and member states will also be in focus.

Other stats include April inflation figures, French consumer spending, and unemployment figures for the Eurozone.

Barring particularly dire numbers, however, we don’t expect too much influence from the numbers.

The EUR ended the week up by 1.00% to $1.2097.

For the Pound:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no major stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

A lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of COVID-19 news and market risk sentiment.

The Pound ended the week up by 0.70% to $1.3876.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

On Wednesday, February retail sales figures will provide the Loonie with direction.

At the end of the week, February GDP and March RMPI numbers will also influence.

Away from the economic calendar, expect GDP numbers from the U.S and beyond and crude oil prices to also provide direction.

The Loonie ended the week up 0.22% to C$1.2476 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead.

1^st quarter inflation figures are due out on Wednesday and Friday.

Expect Aussie Dollar sensitivity to the numbers.

Private sector credit figures for March are also due out at the end of the week.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.06% to $0.7739.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead.

The markets will need to wait until Thursday for March trade data and April business confidence figures.

We would expect both sets of numbers to influence.

From elsewhere, expect 1^st quarter GDP numbers to also provide direction in the week.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 0.80% to $0.7199.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is also a relatively busy week ahead.

On Wednesday, retail sales figures will draw attention. Consumer spending remains key to an economic recovery. In February, retail sales had fallen by 1.5%.

The focus will then shift to a busy Friday. March inflation and industrial production figures will be in focus.

Expect prelim industrial production figures for March to have the greatest impact.

On the monetary policy front, the BoJ is also in action early in the week.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.85 to ¥107.88 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a quiet week ahead.

Private sector PMI figures for April are due out on Friday. Expect the numbers to influence market risk sentiment at the end of the week.

Away from the economic calendar, however, chatter between the U.S and China will also draw attention.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 0.37% to CNY6.4963 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

U.S and China and U.S and Russia are the main areas of focus in the week ahead.

The markets will also need to monitor any chatter from Iran, however. Progress towards a nuclear agreement would be a market positive outcome.

Corporate Earnings

From the U.S, big names include:

Tesla Inc (Mon), Alphabet Inc (Tues), Microsoft Corp (Tues), Apple Inc (Wed), Boeing Co (Wed), Ford Motor Co (Wed), Amazon.com Inc (Thurs), Exxon Mobil Corp (Fri), and Chevron Corp (Fri).

From the EU:

Deutsche Bank (Wed) and Total SE (Thurs).