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Bob Mason
Money world

On the Macro

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar, with 67 stats in focus in the week ending 14th August. In the week prior, 59 stats had been in focus.


For the Dollar:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

In the 1st half, June’s JOLTs job openings and July inflation figures are in focus. Barring particularly dire job opening figures, however, the stats should have a muted impact on the day.

The focus will then to Thursday’s initial jobless claims ahead of a busy end to the week.

On Friday, July retail sales and industrial production and August prelim consumer sentiment figures will influence.

After the positive PMIs for July, the industrial production and retail sales figures will also need to deliver.

Away from the calendar, expect chatter on the COVID-19 stimulus package and tension with China to also influence.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up by 0.09% to 93.435.

For the EUR:

It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic data front.

Key stats include August ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone on Tuesday.

Eurozone industrial production and 2nd estimate GDP numbers on Wednesday and Friday will also draw interest.

We would expect finalized July inflation figures for member states to have a muted impact, however.

The EUR/USD ended the week up by 0.08% to $1.1787.

For the Pound:

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar. On Tuesday, retail sales, claimant count, and unemployment figures will garner plenty of interest.

The focus will then shift to manufacturing production and 2nd quarter GDP number on Wednesday.

We would expect wage growth, industrial production, and trade figures to have a muted impact on the Pound.

Away from the economic calendar, Brexit will remain a key driver.

The GBP/USD ended the week down by 0.25% to $1.3052.

For the Loonie:

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Housing sector data and manufacturing sales figures are due out. Barring dire numbers, however, they will likely have little to no influence on the Loonie.

Expect geopolitics and market sentiment towards the demand for crude and the economic recovery to remain key drivers.

On the crude oil front, OPEC and the IEA’s monthly reports will also provide the Loonie with direction.

The Loonie ended the week up by 0.21% to C$1.3384 against the U.S Dollar.


Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead for the Aussie Dollar.

Early in the week, key stats include July business and August consumer confidence figures.

Expect the stats to have a material impact on the Aussie Dollar ahead of July’s employment figures on Thursday.

With the RBA continuing to rely on a consumption and business investment-driven recovery, these stats are significant.

At the end of the week, industrial production figures from China will also influence.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.20% to $0.7157.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s also a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

On the economic data front, business confidence and electronic card retail sales are in focus early in the week.

The focus will then shift to Business PMI numbers due out at the end of the week.

For the Kiwi Dollar, however, the main event will be the RBNZ monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

Stats from China will also provide the Kiwi Dollar with direction on Friday.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.36% to $0.6605.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats due out of Japan to provide the Yen with direction.

A lack of stats will leave the Yen in the hands of geopolitics and COVID-19 in the week.

The Japanese Yen ended the week down by 0.09% to ¥105.92 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

July’s inflation figures are due out on Monday ahead of industrial production figures on Friday.

We would expect the industrial production figures to have the greatest impact in the week.

Fixed asset investment figures that also due out on Friday should have a muted impact, barring dire numbers…

The ongoing spat between the U.S and China will also need monitoring in the week.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up 0.10% to CNY6.9680 against the U.S Dollar.


UK Politics:

Brexit and bilateral trade talks with key trading partners will remain in focus. Talks are set to continue through August and September ahead of an EU Summit in October.

We’ve seen the Pound avoid a sell-off, with hopes of a more compromising EU providing support.

Any shift in stance and expect the Pound to come under pressure, particularly with the BoE’s gloomy economic outlook.

U.S Politics:

There’s never a dull moment in U.S politics. Lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on the COVID-19 stimulus package before the summer recess.

That leaves the unemployed with the normal benefits following the expiration of the previous unemployment benefits.

U.S foreign policy is also in the spotlight. U.S – China relations took yet another turn for the worse late last week. Expect plenty of chatter in the week ahead, as Trump looks to woo lost support ahead of the Presidential Election.

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