The Week Ahead – Monetary Policy and a Busy Economic Calendar in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 73 stats in focus in the week ending 4^th February. In the week prior, 57 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

Early in the week, ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLT’s job openings will be the key stats ahead of ADP nonfarm employment change figures on Wednesday.

With the markets now second guessing how many rate hikes for the year, the ADP numbers will draw plenty of interest.

On Thursday, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and initial jobless claims will also influence.

At the end of the week, nonfarm payrolls, will be the key stat of the week, however.

In the week ending 28^th January, the Dollar Spot Index rose by 1.70% to 97.270.

For the EUR:

It’s a busy week ahead, with 4^th quarter GDP numbers for the Eurozone and member state inflation figures in focus on Monday.

German retail sales and unemployment figures along with manufacturing PMIs for member states and the Eurozone will influence on Tuesday.

Mid-week, Eurozone inflation figures will be the key stats ahead of service sector PMIs on Thursday. German factory orders and Eurozone retail sales figures on Friday will also influence.

The main event of the week, however, will be the ECB monetary policy decision and press conference on Thursday. The ECB’s stance on inflation and the economic outlook together with any shifts in forward guidance will be key areas of focus.

For the week, the EUR fell by 1.70% to $1.1151.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized private sector PMIs for January will be due out on Tuesday and Thursday. Any revisions to the services PMI will have the greatest influence.

For the Pound, the main event of the week, however, will be the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision on Thursday. Last week, the Pound took a big hit with sentiment towards monetary policy weighing.

The Pound fell by 1.12% to end the week at $1.3401.

For the Loonie:

RMPI numbers for December and GDP figures for November will be in focus early in the week.

Employment and Ivey PMI numbers on Friday will be the key stats of the week, however.

The Loonie ended the week down 1.50% to C$1.2770 against the U.S Dollar.

From the Asia Pacific

For the Aussie Dollar:

Key stats in the week include retail sales and trade data due out on Tuesday and Thursday.

The main event of the week, however, will be the monetary policy decision on Tuesday. With the markets expecting the RBA to leave cash rates unchanged, the Rate Statement will be the main area of focus.

The Aussie Dollar tumbled by 2.74% to $0.6988.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

Trade data on Tuesday and employment figures on Wednesday will be the key stats of the week. Following last week’s sell-off, the numbers will need to impress.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 2.52% to $0.6548.

For the Japanese Yen:

Industrial production and retail sales figures will be the key stats due out on Monday. January’s finalized service sector PMI will also draw interest on Friday, however.

The Japanese Yen fell by 1.39% to ¥115.260 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

There are no major stats from China for the markets to consider in the week, with the markets closed for Chinese New Year.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.35% to CNY6.3612 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

Chatter from Russia and the U.S will need tracking along with any news from China and the Middle East.