U.S., China Strike Trade Deal in Geneva—Markets Await Tariff Clarity

Geneva Talks Yield Agreement—But What’s In It?

The White House declared Sunday that the U.S. has reached a trade agreement with China, capping off two days of intense talks in Geneva. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer described the outcome as “substantial progress,” but refrained from releasing any specific terms. A full briefing is expected Monday, leaving traders scanning for clues in official remarks and market reactions.

Is Tariff Relief on the Table?

Despite the breakthrough tone, U.S. officials made no mention of changes to the steep tariffs—145% on Chinese goods and 125% on U.S. exports—that have stifled nearly $600 billion in trade. These tariffs have weighed on global sentiment, inflamed inflation concerns, and triggered uncertainty across equity and commodity markets. Treasury Secretary Bessent has previously labeled the current tariff structure a “trade embargo,” but Sunday’s statements left their status unresolved.

Was This a Real Reset—or a Pause Button?

Greer noted how quickly the two sides came to terms, suggesting the disagreements may have been less entrenched than expected. He called the meetings “very constructive,” and emphasized that President Trump was directly engaged and fully briefed. Trump himself called it a “total reset” and praised the negotiations on Truth Social, yet the absence of tangible commitments or enforcement mechanisms leaves traders questioning the true scope of the deal.

How Will Markets Respond Monday?

The Geneva talks marked the first direct engagement between senior U.S. and Chinese economic leaders under Trump’s latest trade regime. U.S. officials say the deal is designed to cut the trade deficit and address the “national emergency” tied to America’s $1.2 trillion global trade imbalance. However, until tariff rollbacks or structural reforms are confirmed, traders will remain cautious. Chinese state media framed the discussions as a necessary and positive step, but also criticized Washington’s aggressive tariff strategy.

Market Forecast: Cautiously Bullish Ahead of Monday’s Briefing

With tensions cooling, traders may see early signs of relief rally potential—but conviction will hinge on Monday’s details. A confirmed path toward tariff reduction would likely spark bullish momentum in risk assets and manufacturing-linked sectors. For now, sentiment leans cautiously bullish, but headline sensitivity will remain high as markets await actionable terms from Washington.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.