What does Thanksgiving mean to the markets?

What does Thanksgiving mean to the markets? If you are not from the states, it is hard to understand the effect this holiday has on traders. This is one of the true homegrown non-religious holidays in American that is celebrated by just about everyone. Even hardcore tough professional traders use this holiday for a long weekend respite with family and friends. It is traditional the holidays that families get together, in the US a close knit family can live 1000’s a miles apart on this is the season that people get in cars, trains, and plane to go visit family and close friends. It is a time that students go home, that families reunite. It is the largest travel day of the year in the United States. To accomplish this travel most Americans begin leaving their work place by mid-day on Wednesday and do not return until Monday. This is the holiday that laptops are turned off and football and food move to the forefront.

This includes the aggressive commodities traders and hard hitting currency speculator. Within a few hours from now they will have moved out of the markets, sold off positions or moved to safe assets to sit quietly for the balance of the week. This week is unique because the month also ends on Friday, which is a trading day but exchanges in the US close early. Friday is the famed Black Friday, dooms day for retailers. It is the day that their ledges go from the red to the black, hence the name. It is also the largest shopping day of the year. Unfortunately, JPMorgan has predicted a disappointing shopping season for retails as gloomy as 2008.

This morning The US dollar is down slightly trading at 80.60 after some lackluster data this week as housing data disappointed. Before traders leave for the holiday there will be some important releases. Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly declined in November to a seven-month low as Americans grew more pessimistic about the labor-market outlook. The Conference Board’s index fell to 70.4 from a revised 72.4 a month earlier that was stronger than initially estimated, the New York-based private research group said today. Traders will see US Durable Goods data along with the University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers and Chicago PMI.

The euro has gained this morning to trade at 1.3594 as it tries to broach the 1.36 price and it could depending on US data. Euro-area recovery is still “weak, fragile, uneven,” ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen said in Berlin yesterday. He is scheduled to speak in Hamburg today. ECB Governing council member Ardo Hansson said in an interview in Tallinn, Estonia on Nov. 22 that the Frankfurt-based central bank’s “options on rate cuts are still not fully exhausted and there are all kinds of other measures that are still on the table.” There is not much on the calendar during the European session except for UK GDP. The pound continues to climb trading at 1.6222 as traders expect a positive release today.