Oil Just Hit 4-Year Lows – Here’s Why You’ll Wish You Bought The Dip

Crude Oil has entered correction territory. Both Brent and WTI prices have fallen to their lowest levels since 2020, down more than 18% in just four weeks. Fears of recession, global trade wars, retaliatory tariffs and OPEC+’s modest output increase have driven headlines – but beneath the surface, a different story is unfolding.

This isn’t a structural breakdown. It’s the biggest buying opportunity of 2025.

Two Superpowers Are Quietly Loading Up

China – the world’s largest Oil importer is capitalizing on every dip. Last month, China’s Crude Oil purchases rose to 12.11 million barrels a day – a 5% increase from the same month a year ago. This marks the third consecutive month of rising imports, driven by a rebound in domestic travel and industrial production. China has also added an estimated 250 million barrels to its strategic reserves over the past 12 months, according to proprietary data tracked by GSC Commodity Intelligence.

In the United States, the summer driving season – historically a strong demand driver is around the corner. This year’s driving season is expected to push Gasoline demand close to 9.4 million bpd. Meanwhile, jet fuel consumption is also accelerating, with passenger air traffic rising 8.9% year-on-year in April.

These forces are quietly aligning behind the scenes – positioning the market for a major shift. And that shift could be triggered by a single buyer: President Trump’s U.S government.

Trump’s Strategic Buying Could Shift The Floor

In his January 2025 inaugural address, President Trump pledged to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) “right to the top”, after it fell to 346.8 million barrels – it’s lowest since 1983.

Now with the SPR sitting at its lowest level in over 40-years and Oil prices back at multi-year lows – Trump has a unique opportunity to buy cheap Oil, restore energy security and support domestic producers – all while anchoring a price floor.

Simultaneously, Trump’s broader economic agenda, includes bold plans to transform America into a “Massive Manufacturing Hub”.

Powering that resurgence will require more than just an ideology – it will require Oil and a lot of it!

Geopolitical Risks Are Being Ignored

Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the Oil market is pricing in virtually no risk premium.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which 21% of global Oil flows daily, remains vulnerable. Even a brief disruption there – or in another key producing region – could rapidly send Crude Oil prices surging $10, $20 or even $30 higher – virtually overnight.

Historic Setups, Historic Moves

According to analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence – “Corrections of this magnitude are rare – but historically, they have been launch pads for major rallies. In 2016, 2020 and again in 2022, similar sharp corrections in Oil prices were followed by rallies of 30% to 50% within six months.”

If history is anything to go by, then Crude Oil now offers one of the most compelling risk-reward setups of the year. With supply tight, geopolitical risk unpriced and government buyers poised to act – Oil may be the biggest buying opportunity of 2025!