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Opinions

  • Fed Chair Janet Yellen

    Is the Fed Raising Rates to Cool Inflation or Prevent an Asset Bubble?

    On Friday at 1500 GMT shortly after the release of the widely watched U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and at the end of a U.S. holiday-shortened week, the U.S. Federal Reserve released its semi-annual monetary report to Congress, which Chair Janet Yellen will deliver to Congress next week.I suspect that a

  • Why the Next Financial Crisis Will be in our lifetime

    The previous week was heavily filled by the appearance of high profile personalities. From one side we had the ECB forum, where we heard the developed central banks’ chairmen. But nothing was more ironical than the speech of Janet Yellen in the British academy, UK. Yellen sent a reassurance message

  • Gold

    A Weaker Dollar Not Likely to Make Gold an Attractive Asset in a Rising Interest Rate Environment

    Comex gold futures closed lower last week but for the most part, it was rangebound while the rest of the investing community was busy adjusting their positions in currencies and interest-bearing instruments. Nonetheless, it was an interesting week, highlighted by a trading error, a plunging U.S. Dollar that garnered almost

  • Choice Act

    Choice Act Reduces Regulatory Burdens, but Makes System Less Safe

    In early February, President Donald Trump signed an executive order intended to repeal the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. The Trump administration intends to replace the Dodd-Frank Act with the Financial Choice Act. This bill failed in 2016, but has been reintroduced by Republican Congressman Jeb

  • inflation

    Fed Treating Inflation Data Like “Fake News”

    The phrase “fake news” has been making the rounds around Washington lately. Most of the time it has been used by politicians, but last week, I felt it may have been tossed around a few times at the Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy meeting.Last week’s Fed interest rate decision

  • Fed Chair Janet Yellen

    Delays in Trump’s Agenda, Debt-Ceiling Will Force Fed to Pass on September Rate Hike

    Federal Reserve policymakers are widely expected to increase the target for the federal funds rate from 1% to 1.25% on Wednesday. Traders are pricing in close to a 100% chance of this happening so any surprises will be to the downside.Since last December, the Fed has been expected to raise

  • Middle East Map

    Qatar in Boiling Water

    Mideast unstoppable tensions’ shadows had always direct influence on the financial markets since the 70s of the previous century. However, the surface aspects of every single dilemma are usually hiding a devil fact in the details.On June 4th a sudden rift between Arab countries took place amid major political and

  • Janet Yellen, Rates and Gold

    Falling Yields and Rising Gold Telling Markets Fed Will Limit Future Rate Hikes

    When the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate last December, it forecast three rates during 2017. At the time, it cited an improving economy and labor market as the reasons for its lofty projections. It also projected slightly faster increases the next few years amid the prospect of a massive

  • Fed Rate Decision

    Yea or Nay for the Fed after NFP, Consumer Inflation Data

    With the Federal Reserve’s May 3 policy minutes injecting an air of caution into the outlook for U.S. interest rates last week, investors are going to put increased weight on Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.The Federal Open Market Committee minutes said that most officials judged “it would soon be appropriate”

  • Brace Yourself for More Stock Market Volatility Ahead of Comey Testimony

    In my opinion, between now and when former FBI Director James Comey testifies before the Senate Intelligence Committee sometime after Memorial Day, the U.S. stock market is likely to see the highest wave of volatility of the year. Besides the conventional measure of volatility, the CBOE’s VIX, volatility in this

  • Trump, the FBI and the Russians

    There seems to be little else that the markets are talking about these days than Trump’s handling of former FBI Director Comey and the allegations that Trump had revealed classified information to Russian officials last week, the allegations becoming fact following Trump tweets affirming the rumours, the justification being that

  • Rising Cryptocurrency VS Falling FOREX

    Couple of years ago, when I first heard about Bitcoin, I rejected the idea entirely, believed that there is no way for that to survive. When you read about inventors through the history, they faced resistance. Same rejection faced the newcomer once it was declared in 2008 by the anonymous

  • The Why Should I Be Worried Look

    More Downside than Upside Potential for Stocks at This Time

    Strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said last week that they found something a little strange about the stock market. Their research showed that bank lenders are getting worried about the economy, but investors appear to have a “what, me worry” attitude towards current valuations.According to their research, demand

  • Fed Chair Janet Yellen

    Jobs Report Enough for Rate Hike, but Not Perfect

    The jump in U.S. jobs creation in April by 211,000 was an important indication that perhaps the Fed was right when it implied in its latest monetary policy report that the weakness in the first quarter was only temporary.The drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4 percent was also encouraging.

  • North Korea’s Defiance of Trump Pushes Gold to Forefront

    Gold is likely to be in focus this week after taking a backseat last week to the French elections, central bank meetings, and U.S. policy announcements. Pushing it back to the forefront will be the possibility of escalating military activity in North Korea based on events over the week-end.Demand for

  • European concerns: Greece is still Struggling, But Who is to Blame?

    Historical SnapshotAs we are heading towards the 9th year of economic crisis in Greece, someone has to wonder “what went so wrong that 9 different governments in collaboration with the tripartite committee (European commission, IMF and WB) were unable to reach a solution?”  and how come the Greek crises has

  • French Elections – First Round

    The much anticipated French elections are finally around the corner and with all of the noise from earlier in the year, looking at the EUR, one would have thought that it was a 2 horse race between the more seasoned, but tainted Fillon and ex-banker Macron.As things stand, it’s a

  • inflation

    Disappointing U.S. Inflation, Retail Sales Data Means Mr. Trump May Get His Wish

    On April 3, the newly released minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 15 indicated that the central bank struggled with two major concerns:  whether it should let inflation run hot beyond its 2.0% mandate and how to prepare for President Trump’s economic stimulus plans.The minutes showed

  • The Election in France

    Vive la France! The Election and the Euro

    Unless one candidate can garner more than 50% of the vote in the first round of elections, French voters will go to the polls twice to elect their new leader.  The two candidates that score the most votes will go head to head for the top spot on the leadership

  • Life is Not So Bad after Brexit, Qatar will Invest 5bn in UK Over the Next Five Years

    Last week,  UK and Qatar held two days investment summit in Birmingham followed by Theresa May speech. May was brief and outlined some important points as the fact that they have signed a memorandum of understanding that will benefit 600 UK companies and will boost the employment process. From the Qatari

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