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10-Yr U.S. Treasury Notes (TY) Futures Technical Analysis – October 29, 2014 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 07:00 UTC

December 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes continued to straddle a key 50% level and a pair of uptrending Gann angles on Tuesday. The range was narrow and the

Daily December 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes

December 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes continued to straddle a key 50% level and a pair of uptrending Gann angles on Tuesday. The range was narrow and the market posted an inside move which was not a surprise since many traders took to the sidelines ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The Fed is expected to announce the end to its quantitative easing program and leave interest rates unchanged. It’s not what the Fed is going to do that is important today, but what it says in the statement. Topics that may be mentioned include the effects of the weak Euro Zone economy on the U.S. recovery, the impact of the strong U.S. Dollar on the economy and falling energy prices as they pertain to inflation.

Daily December 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes
Daily December 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes

The main range is 123’16 to 130’17. The retracement zone formed by this range is 127’00.5 to 126’06. The upper or 50% level at 127’00.5 is currently being tested. Monday’s closing price reversal bottom at 126’25.5 was formed inside this zone.

A pair of uptrending angles from previous bottoms come in at 127’02 and 127’00. These angles form a tight cluster with the 50% level at 127’00.5, making this area very important to the structure of the market today.

Holding this area and taking out 127’08 with conviction should trigger a breakout into at least 128’01, followed by a 50% level at 128’21.5.

A failure to hold 127’00 will be a sign of weakness, but don’t expect an acceleration to the downside until 126’25.5 is taken out with conviction. This could trigger a break into the Fibonacci level at 126’06, followed by an uptrending angle at 125’30.

Look for volatility late in the session since the Fed releases its FOMC announcement at 2:00 pm EDT. If the Fed statement is dovish, look for a breakout to the upside. A hawkish statement will encourage fresh selling.

The tone of the market today will be determined by trader reaction to 127’00. 

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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