30-Yr U.S. Treasury Bonds (US) Futures Technical Analysis – August 19, 2015 Forecast

September 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds are trading slightly better shortly ahead of the cash market opening and the release of the U.S. consumer inflation report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Later in the day, traders will get the opportunity to react to the latest Fed minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET. Both events are important because traders are going to use them to help decide the odds of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve. 

The main trend is up on the daily chart, but momentum is to the downside.

The first downside targets today are a minor bottom at 157’12 and a 50% level at 157’02. The daily chart opens up under this level with the next target a major 50% level at 156’10.

The 50% level at 156’10 is also a trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with key targets coming in at 155’05 to 154’29.

Based on the current price at 158’01, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep downtrending angle at 158’06. This is followed by a major Fibonacci level at 158’13.

The daily chart opens up over 158’13 with potential targets at 159’01, 159’14, and 160’02. The latter is the last potential resistance before the 160’22 main top.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 158’06. This will tell us whether the bulls or the bears are in control. Look for increased volatility at 8:30 a.m. ET and 2:00 p.m. ET.