30-Yr U.S. Treasury Bonds (US) Futures Technical Analysis – August 5, 2015 Forecast

September 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds are called lower after a sharp sell-off on Tuesday. The catalyst for the weakness was a bearish comment from Dennis Lockhart, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. In an article in the Wall Street Journal, Lockhart suggested that Fed policy makers are prepared to raise the Fed funds rate in September.

Technically, the main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum appears to be shifting to the downside.

Yesterday’s rally stopped at 157’30. This fell inside a retracement zone defined as 156’10 to 158’13.

Today’s resistance lines up at 157’30 and 158’13. This is followed by 159’01 and 160’05.

Tuesday’s close was 156’28. The first downside target is a steep uptrending angle at 156’21. This is followed by the 50% level at 156’10.

The short-term range is 153’13 to 157’30. Its pivot is 155’22. This price will likely control the direction of the market today. Under 155’22 is an uptrending angle at 155’13. The daily chart opens up under 155’13 with the next target an uptrending angle at 154’13.

The main trend turns down on a move under 153’13.

Based on the momentum into the close, look for early weakness. A trade through 156’10 will be the first sign of selling pressure. This could trigger a fast break into the daily pivot at 155’22. This price will then control the direction of the market the rest of the session.