ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – ETH Bucks the Bearish Trend

Key Insights:

• It was a bearish Monday to Saturday, with the total crypto market cap falling by $5.45 billion (-0.62%) to $880.31 billion.
• US economic indicators sent the crypto market south before a shift in sentiment toward Fed monetary policy delivered late support.
• Technical indicators remain bearish, with Fed fear and the war in Ukraine leaving the crypto market under pressure.

Monday to Saturday, the crypto market cap fell by $5.45 billion to $880.31 billion. The crypto market had fallen by $20.1 billion in the week prior. Another full-week loss would mark the fifth weekly decline in six weeks, leaving the crypto market down more than $1,300 billion (60%) year-to-date.

US economic indicators sent the crypto market to a Friday low of $851.6 billion before steadying.

On Tuesday, US industrial production figures beat forecasts, with US jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index numbers delivering another blow on Thursday.

With the markets focused on inflation and labor market conditions, the Philly Fed Employment Index jumped from 12.0 to 28.5. Jobless claims also impressed, falling from 226k to 214k in the week ending October 14.

Going into the Thursday numbers, FOMC member chatter continued to fuel bets of 75-basis point Fed rate hikes in November and December.

However, sentiment shifted on Friday Fed talk of taking its foot off the gas drive demand for riskier assets. On Friday, the NASDAQ 100 ended a choppy week with a 2.31% rally, quashing hopes of the crypto market decoupling from the US markets.

According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 75-basis point December rate hike sits at 45.6%, down from 75.4% on Thursday. With the markets having baked in a 75-basis point hike for November, December remains the focal point. However, economic data could deliver some uncertainty in the week ahead.

Going into the Sunday session, cardano (ADA), polkadot (DOT), and solana (SOL) were in negative territory for the week, while ethereum (ETH) saw green.

Cardano (ADA)

Monday to Saturday, ADA was down 5.39% to 0.351. A mixed start to the week saw ADA rise to a Monday high of $0.376 before sliding to a new 2022 and Friday low of $0.330. However, a Friday rebound and a bullish Saturday reduced the deficit for the week.

Going into the Saturday session, Input Output HK (IOHK) updates remained ADA negative. However, network news from Saturday delivered much-needed support.

On Saturday, Citaldoc announced the first ADA transaction on its telemedicine platform.

Citaldoc said,

“We are getting emotional right now. First ADA transaction in our telemedicine platform.”

Citaldoc provided the details of the test transaction of 10,000 ADA, which had a transaction fee of just 0.17 ADA (0.0017%).

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.50 will be the key. However, a fall through the October low of $0.330 would give the bears a look at sub-$0.300.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.360. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through the 50-day EMA ($0.360) would support a breakout from the 100-day EMA ($0.377) to target $0.400. The 200-day EMA sits at $0.403. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.360) would leave sub-$0.300 in play.

Polkadot (DOT)

DOT was down by 5.49% to $5.85, Monday through Saturday.

Tracking the broader market, DOT rose to a Tuesday high of $6.30 before sliding to a Friday low of $5.74. A partial recovery on Friday and a bullish Saturday reduced the deficit.

News of Parity Technologies CEO and Ethereum co-founder Gavin Wood stepping down left DOT on the back foot. The bearish week also saw Dot give up the number 11 spot by market cap to Polygon (MATIC). Parity is the parent company of the Polkadot Ecosystem.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44. DOT would need to break down resistance at the September high of $8.05 to support a shift in sentiment.

However, DOT will have to avoid the October low of $5.65 to prevent a continued fall to sub-$5.00.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish.

DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $6.02. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA sliding back from the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered negative price signals.

DOT would need to move through the 50-day EMA ($6.02) and the 100-day EMA ($6.13) to target the 200-day EMA ($6.35) and the October high of $6.54. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at sub-$5.00.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH bucked the trend, Monday to Saturday, rising by 0.61% to $1,314.

Tracking the broader market, ETH rose to a Tuesday high of $1,342 before sliding to a Friday low of $1,254. However, a Friday recovery and a bullish Saturday session saw ETH return to $1,300.

There were no key events to deliver ETH price action, leaving external market forces to influence.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,500 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 to target $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the October low of $1,190 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year low of $880.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat at the 100-day EMA, currently at $1,311. However, the 50-day EMA closed the gap on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The signals were ETH price positives.

An ETH breakout from the 100-day EMA ($1,311) would give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA ($1,348) and $1,350. A fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,303) would bring the October low of $1,190 into view.

Solana (SOL)

SOL was down 7.12% to $28.0075, Monday through Saturday.

Following the broader market trend, SOL rose to a Tuesday high of $31.4850 before sliding to a new October low of $26.8300. However, finding Friday support, SOL returned to $28 to reduce the deficit.

Solana network outages continue to deliver downward price pressure, with the Mango Markets hack another bearish SOL event. Solana’s total value locked (TVL) reflected the bearish sentiment, falling to sub-$900 million in the week.

A fix to the network outage issues would be a step in the right direction. Jump Crypto aims to resolve the outage issues with a new validator client to increase the throughput and network reliability.

Looking at the trends, an SOL move through the September high of $39.00 to $50 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $50. A resolution to the network outages and a pickup in total value locked would contribute to a recovery from current levels.

However, a fall through the October low of $26.8300 would leave the June and the current year low of $25.7825 in view.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $29.2636. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were price negatives.

An SOL move through the 50-day EMA ($29.2636) would support a breakout from the 100-day EMA ($30.2867) to target the 200-day EMA ($31.4955). However, a failure to break through the 50-day EMA would leave the current-year low of $25.7825 in view.