Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Dovish Turn Lifts $4,000 and $49 Outlook

Market Overview

Gold and silver extended gains on Monday as dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and persistent signs of economic weakness bolstered expectations of a December rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 67% probability of a rate reduction next month, up from 60% a week earlier.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem are set to speak later Monday, with traders watching for clues on inflation and policy direction. Recent data from the Cleveland Fed showed long-term inflation expectations holding near 3.5%, signaling lingering price pressures despite slowing growth.

The Federal Reserve has held rates steady since September, but the combination of softer employment data and declining business confidence has prompted speculation that policymakers may ease monetary conditions to support demand heading into 2026.

Weak Labor Market Fuels Safe-Haven Demand

The latest labor data underscored the fragility of the US job market. Private employers cut 153,000 jobs in October, the steepest monthly decline in over two decades. Layoffs in the government and retail sectors, coupled with an uptick in corporate cost-cutting, heightened fears of a broader slowdown.

Consumer sentiment also dropped to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years, according to a University of Michigan survey, as Americans grew increasingly concerned about inflation, fiscal uncertainty, and the prolonged government shutdown.

These developments have pushed investors toward precious metals, which tend to perform well in times of economic uncertainty and falling interest-rate expectations.

Silver Tracks Gold Higher on Industrial Outlook

Silver followed gold higher, supported by its dual role as both a safe-haven and an industrial metal. Analysts at Metals Focus noted that expectations of weaker Treasury yields and a potential rebound in manufacturing activity could sustain silver’s momentum.

With market attention turning to Fed speeches and upcoming inflation data, traders are closely watching whether policymakers confirm growing market bets on a softer monetary path through year-end.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is likely to hold above $4,000, targeting $4,100–$4,180 if momentum strengthens, while silver may break $49.33, opening gains toward $50.60–$52.00 amid dovish Fed sentiment.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,055, testing the upper boundary of a short-term range between $3,965 and $4,085. The metal has maintained its footing above the rising trendline from mid-October, showing steady accumulation near support.

The 20-EMA is turning upward, hinting at improving momentum, while the RSI near 64 suggests mild bullish pressure without signs of exhaustion. A sustained close above $4,085 could pave the way toward $4,142 and $4,180, aligning with previous swing highs. Conversely, a pullback below $3,965 may retest $3,887.

Overall, gold remains technically constructive as long as price stays above trend support, with traders eyeing a potential breakout toward the $4,100–$4,180 region.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $49.31, approaching key resistance at $49.33, a level that has capped gains multiple times over the past month. The metal has maintained its bullish structure above the ascending trendline from the late-October lows near $47.20, supported by consistent higher lows.

The 20-EMA continues to slope upward, signaling sustained short-term momentum, while the RSI near 65 indicates growing bullish pressure without entering overbought territory.

A decisive close above $49.33 could trigger an advance toward $50.64 and $52.00, aligning with October’s highs. Conversely, if resistance holds, silver could pull back toward $48.40 or trendline support at $47.20. Overall, the bias remains positive as long as the price stays above $47.20.