Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100 Futures Surge as US Shutdown Deal Nears

US stock futures enjoyed breakouts early in the Asian session on Monday, November 10. Reports of the US Senate reaching a bipartisan deal to reopen the government fueled demand for risk assets.

US equity futures have faced selling pressure since late October amid fears of a prolonged shutdown, triggering stagflation jitters. Elevated inflation and deteriorating labor market conditions collided with the shutdown, which could slow economic momentum.

The risk-on sentiment also fueled demand for Bitcoin (BTC) and Asian market indices, while sending USD/JPY toward 155.

The US Senate impasse entered its 40th day on Monday, November 10, the longest in history.

US Senate Ends Democrat Filibuster

President Trump’s social media page signaled a potential end to the Senate standoff, stating:

“Senate just voted to end the democrat filibuster and it passed with over 60 votes. Now the CR moves to be voted on to start process of opening of the government. Once the Senate passes, the CR will move to the house to re-vote where it already passed then Trump to sign.”

Markets do not expect further impediments to reopening the government, given that the House has already passed the stopgap funding bill.

Crucially, the reopening could expedite the release of delayed US economic reports, potentially influencing the Fed’s rate path. The Fed has lacked key data releases since October 1, complicating expectations for a December rate cut. However, the lasting impact of the shutdown on the US economy may revive bets on further monetary policy easing in December. A more dovish Fed rate path could boost demand for US equity futures.

US Stock Futures: Capitol Hill and Fed Speakers in Focus

US stock futures posted strong gains during Monday’s Asian session. The Nasdaq 100 E-mini jumped 277 points, looking to snap a two-day losing streak. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones E-mini gained 112 points, while the S&P 500 E-mini advanced 45 points.

Later on Monday, markets will continue to react to reports from Capitol Hill, with Fed speakers also in the spotlight.

A bipartisan US Senate and the House sending the bill to President Trump’s desk could lift sentiment. However, US futures indices remain exposed to any roadblocks, given market optimism over the House greenlighting the bill.

Meanwhile, traders should closely monitor FOMC members’ speeches for views on the economic outlook, inflation, and rate cuts.

Last week, US job cuts, consumer sentiment, and inflation expectation figures underscored rising stagflation risk, weighing on risk appetite. According to the weekly Challenger report, job cuts soared from 54.064k in September to 153.074k in October, while the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 53.6 in October to 50.3 in November.

A deteriorating labor market and waning sentiment could curb wage growth and cool consumer spending, which accounts for around 65% of US GDP. Elevated inflation and a slowing economy would raise risks of stagflation. The reopening could return US government workers to the office, resume salary payments, and restore some consumer confidence.

Key Technical Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500

Despite recent market volatility, US stock futures traded above key technical levels, signaling a moderately bullish bias.

Near-term trends will hinge on Fed commentary, Capitol Hill, and incoming US data. Key levels traders should monitor include:

Dow Jones

• Resistance: 47,250, 47,500, and the October 28 record high of 48,214.
• Support: 47,000 and the 50-day EMA (46,578).

Nasdaq 100

• Resistance: 25,500, 26,000, then October 30 record high of 26,399.
• Support: 25,250, then 50-day EMA (24,926).

S&P 500

• Resistance: October 30 record high of 6,954, then 7,000.
• Support: the 50-day EMA (6,702) and 6,500.

Market Outlook: Fed Speeches and Capitol Hill Dynamics

Traders brace for a pivotal session, with the US Senate set to pass a stopgap funding bill in a highly anticipated procedural vote. Barring a last-minute hiccup, the bill will pass to the House.

While developments on Capitol Hill will be key, the US Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs also requires consideration.

Given the competing market forces, US stock futures could face increased volatility in the coming sessions.

Follow our live coverage and consult the economic calendar for real-time market updates.