ADA Price Prediction: $0.50 Remains the Target for the Bulls

Key Insights:

• It was a mixed Thursday session, with late support preventing a Cardano (ADA) loss.
• While avoiding a loss, ADA trailed the broader crypto top ten, with slow progress to meeting Vasil hard fork requirements testing support.
• Technical indicators are turning bullish, with ADA sitting above the 50-day and the 100-day EMAs to bring $0.50 into play.

On Thursday, ADA ended the day flat. Following a 3.68% gain on Wednesday, ADA wrapped up the day at $0.479.

After a bearish morning, ADA fell to an early afternoon low of $0.463. However, avoiding the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.461, ADA rose to a late high of $0.483 before easing back. ADA fell short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.489.

While finding support from the broader crypto market and the NASDAQ 100, Vasil hard fork updates tested investor sentiment.

Updates Show Slow Progress by Certain Exchanges

Overnight, Input Output HK shared the latest updates as the Vasil hard fork date nears. Exchange upgrades slowed in recent days, possibly raising concerns over the readiness of the most liquid ADA exchanges for the hard fork.

As of September 8, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

• Fourteen exchanges are hard fork ready, up from 13 as of September 7.
• Hard fork ready exchanges include AAX, AscendEX (Bitmax), Bitkub, Bitmart, Bitrue, BKEX, Btc Turk, Dex-Trade, Gate.io, Litebit.eu, MEXC, NDAX, OKex, and Whitebit.
• Twenty-eight exchanges are in progress, up by two from the previous day, with Binance ‘nearly there’ and Coinbase and Kraken reporting upgrades in progress.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

• Five exchanges are hard fork ready: AAX, Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, and WhiteBit, with five in progress, including Binance, Coinbase, HitBTC, Upbit, and XT.com.
• However, two exchanges have yet to start the upgrade process: ChangellyPro and ZB.com.

While the number of exchanges being hard fork ready and the number in progress have risen, Binance and Coinbase have yet to complete the upgrade process.

Following the successful upgrade of 75% of SPO nodes to v1.35.3, the crypto market is tracking two critical mass indicators, these being,

• Approximately 25 exchanges upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity).
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

Overnight, PoolTool showed that 83% of Cardano SPO nodes have upgraded to v1.35.3. While upgrade momentum has stalled, nodes achieved the 75% threshold last week.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.63% to $0.482. A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.479 to a high of $0.482.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid the $0.475 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.487.

While Vasil hard fork updates remain positive, the remaining seven most liquid ADA exchanges will need to report upgrades to deliver ADA price support. Investors will be eying updates from Binance and Coinbase in particular.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.495 and resistance at $0.500. There are no US economic indicators for investors to consider today. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.515.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.467 into play. However, barring another extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.450. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.455 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.435.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

ADA sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.481. The 50-day EMA remained converged on the 100-day EMA, with the 50-day and the 100-day EMAs narrowing to the 200-day EMA, signaling an imminent move.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a breakout from the 200-day EMA ($0.481) to bring the Major Resistance Levels into play. However, an ADA fall through the EMAs would give the bears a run at S1 ($0.467).